AI, machine learning (ML) and especially generative AI (GenAI) were everywhere in 2023. But lots of the attention was performance art, not substance: when the media falls in love with a technology story it becomes “breaking news” and “news alerts” all day long – every day. AI in 2023 was like commercials for Medicare advantage policies: endlessly repetitive, ICYMI and FOMO – only to be replaced by ubiquitous messages ordering us to buy lots of stuff for Christmas. AI was like that in 2023. There were “about 6,790,000,000” stories about AI in 2023. Incredibly, there were more stories about AI in 2023 than there were about Donald Trump.
AI dated everyone in 2023. Everyone matched them up and relationships blossomed until the parties realized that relationships should have some meaning after all the sexy stories – like “AI will kill us all” – ran their course. 2024 will begin to define this meaning.
So here are five predictions we can safely make about 2024 (except one):
1. Good Old Fashioned Machine Learning Will Explode
2. Executives Will Really Try to Understand AI
3. ChatGPT, Bard & All the Rest Will Invade Everything
4. ROI Will Become Strategic OKRs
5. Business Schools Will Rethink Curriculum
Good Old Fashioned Machine Learning Will Explode
Surprise! Simple applications of machine learning (narrow AI/supervised learning) will continue to explode on the problem-solving scene. While everyone expects generative AI to continue to dominate the conversation – which it will – there will also be an unprecedented number of “simple” applications of machine learning. Why? Part of the reason is because executvies have learned to finally pay attention to AI, machine learning and generative AI, which is the result of all of the hype around the technology. Narrow AI/supervised learning applications are well-bounded and regression-solvable problems are also cheap to develop and easy to deploy. In order to find these opportunities, companies will finally spend some money on business process modeling and process mining to identify the most promising applications. Everything routine and repeatable is the target. All of the awareness AI created by generative AI in 2023 will pay huge dividends for the automation, replacement and reimagination of business processes across the enterprise.
Executives Will Really Try to Understand AI
While most executives do not understand technology the way they should, their interest in all things “AI” will peak in 2024. Because of all the hype in 2023 – and all of the FOMO warnings – executives will educate themselves about how AI works – at a conceptual, not computer science-based level – and the problems AI can solve. They will do this because they will be seduced by the possibilities of making money and saving money with AI. They will also do this because they will – for the first time – begin to integrate AI/ML/GenAI into their strategic planning. If “AI” is to become strategic – which it will in 2024 – then executives have no choice but to understand how it works and what it does.
ChatGPT, Bard & All the Rest Will Invade – & Replace – Everything
We have not scratched the surface of the problems GenAI will solve not within the decade, but within two or three years. Way too many companies and the executives who run them will wake from the technology dead to discover a really powerful technology that can save them time and money – lots of time and money – and make their companies more competitive. They will also discover that ChatGPT, Bard and all the rest can make them richer. The range of applications is literally endless. This is not hyperbole. Where will the impact be felt? All of the so-called knowledge industries will – for the first time in their lives – find themselves in the crosshairs of AI/ML/GenAI including paralegals, accountants, marketers, traders, bankers, customer service representatives and media professionals, among others. Listen to what McKinsey has to say about it: “by 2030, activities that account for up to 30 percent of hours currently worked across the US economy could be automated – a trend accelerated by generative AI.” TechTarget describes it this way: “in past automation-fueled labor fears, machines would automate tedious, repetitive work. Generative AI is different in that it automates creative tasks such as writing, coding and even music making.”
ROI Will Become Strategic Strategic OKRs
In 2024, AI/ML/GenAI will evolve from “science projects” to MVPs that will suggest initial ROIs that will translate into objectives and key results (OKRs). The transition from simple ROI calculations to OKRs will solidify AI’s integration into enterprise strategy. When AI/ML/GenAI becomes seriously “strategic” its role will fundamentally change, which will occur in 2024. Every single perspective that “AI” has been overhyped, that it will only have limited impact, that certain professions will be immune to its effects will be exposed as fake news.
Business Schools Will Rethink Curriculum
For decades – even centuries – business schools believed they knew what constituted a “business education.” They created academic disciplines, “majors” and “minors” designed to prepare their students for successful careers in business. They defined “management” and “leadership,” and identified business functions like accounting, marketing and finance they believed would persist over time, which explains why business school curriculum has remained essentially static for decades. The closest thing to a challenge to the structure and content of b-school curriculum occurred when the Internet arrived. When it hit in full force there was some serious thinking about how “e” everything would impact business models and processes – which it obviously did – but business schools treated the Internet as just another competitive tool. GenAI is different. It’s not a tool. It’s a replacement.
Business schools have yet to acknowledge the full impact that AI/ML/GenAI will have on business disciplines, functions, models and processes, or the role it will play in business problem-solving.
Academic disciplines like marketing, accounting, business law and finance – and the courses that define them – are already obsolete. The typical courses in these disciplines limped into machine learning over the past ten years but have largely ignored the real impact that AI/ML/GenAI will inevitably have on all things business. In 2024, business schools will begin to look seriously at the impact AI/ML/GenAI will have on its curriculum and begin to rethink its entire curriculum. (This is the prediction that will not come true.)
AI Matures in 2024
2024 is the year that AI/ML/GenAI grows up. The five predictions described here are among others that describe how AI/ML/GenAI will leave adolescence. The most important one discussed here is AI’s new strategic assignment. Once a technology begins to play this role, its status changes. It receives funding, talent is recruited and products and services are defined through its capabilities. In 2024, AI/ML/GenAI will play a whole new strategic role in the enterprise which guarantees it permanent status, as if there was ever any doubt.
