Apple’s fall products seem set to go on sale on Friday, September 20. As well as the iPhone 16 series, the range will surely include the next models of Apple Watch, including Apple Watch Ultra 3 and just possibly a new Apple Watch SE. But what about the main model in the range, Apple Watch Series 10? It looks like that will have its first design upgrade in three years.

That makes sense. The first Apple Watch models, up to and including Series 3, came with the same case sizes, 38mm and 42mm. Remember that these sizes indicate the height of the case.

Series 4, 5 and 6 adopted a new display and a 2-millimeter increase in case size, that is, 40m and 44mm. Then, Series 7, Series 8 and the current Series 9 changed the design again and they grew to 41mm and 45mm cases.

According to reliable tipster Sonny Dickson, who tells me he has seen images of the new models, there’s another 1mm gain this time around, which should mean they’re landing at 42mm and 46mm.

If correct, this means that the next small Apple Watch case size will be the same as the original large case. Bigger Watches, then, though there’s no hint that the Apple Watch Ultra 3 will increase in size from its current 49mm case. To be honest, I’d expect any design change for the next Ultra would come next year—though if the rumored space black version came to pass, I’d be delighted.

I asked about whether, size apart, the design is relatively unchanged and was told that it looks like it.

My suspicion is there may be other changes that are perhaps not immediately apparent, such as a change to the flatness or curvature of the cover glass, say. If Apple continues its three-year design update cycle, it will want to have made more of a change than the size. Obviously, the display will be bigger and perhaps bezels thinner—Apple always likes to push these changes. And expect a different color range, too.

And a bigger Watch may mean a redesign internally, addition of a new sensor or, whisper it, a bigger battery.

One question to be answered is what will happen to the blood oxygen monitoring? Because of a legal challenge from device maker Masimo, Apple has had to deactivate its blood oxygen sensor in Apple Watches it has sold since early this year. Will Series 10 have an all-new sensor or different software? That won’t be the reason for a larger Watch but it’s an interesting extra wrinkle.

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