What place will have the best weather for the total solar eclipse on Monday, April 8? It’s the question everyone in North America wants to answer before the momentous celestial event, mainly since the path across the continent sees a transition from winter into late spring. The answer is easy: any place within the path of totality with a clear sky for the few minutes the moon entirely blocks the sun—totality!
Climate vs Weather
That knowledge will only be revealed on the day itself, though likely also in weather forecasts in the few days beforehand. For now, all we have is climatology based on long-term trends—but new 2024 eclipse cloud cover maps have just been published.
New cloud climatology image data from climate researchers at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies reveals the probability of clear skies across North America. Based on data from the GOES weather satellites, it also now covers Atlantic Canada. It’s generated solely from GOES observations over a few hours every April 8 from 1995-2023 and averaged.
Mexico And Texas Favored
While everyone in North America will see the partial phases through solar eclipse glasses, only those within the 115-mile-wide track of the moon’s shadow will enjoy a brief totality. That will last up to 4 minutes and 26 seconds in Mexico and Texas, reduced by a minute or so as the path of totality tracks southwest to northeast across the U.S. and Canada. “
Mexico seems likely to get the best cloud-free views and also the spot with the longest view of totality,” according to the CIMSS cloud science team.” There’s about a 20% chance of clouds in Mexico, rising to 80% in Canada. In the U.S., Texas is the most favorable location, with around a 40% chance of cloud. So even in Mexico and Texas, there’s around a significant chance of having some kind of cloud cover on April 8.
CIMMS also makes available a time-lapse style interactive page that shows a satellite image of the path for every April 8 since 1979.
Important Disclaimer
There’s a tried and tested saying among eclipse-chasers: “Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.” There’s a disclaimer to that end accompanying these new cloud maps. “This is not a real forecast, and past clear or cloudy skies do not guarantee anything for April 8, 2024,” reads the CIMSS website. It has this advice for anyone searching for clear skies on April 8:
- Start checking local weather forecasts on April 6, which will then begin to be accurate.
- Remember that the “eclipse cooling” effect of the sun being blocked by the moon can itself cause the number of certain types of clouds.
- Follow local meteorologists along the path on TV—they will be paying attention to cloud cover, where good open places to view it will be, and what local plans are.
Path Of Totality
On April 8 the path of totality will cross parts of five states in Mexico (Sinaloa, Nayarit, Durango, Coahuila and Chihuahua), 15 U.S. states (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine) and six Canadian Provinces (Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland).
The moon will be close enough to Earth to appear 5.6% larger than the sun, casting a shadow that will move across the planet at about 1,500 mph. Totality will move across North America—Mexico, the U.S. and Canada—in 100 minutes, crossing six timezones.
For the latest on all aspects of April 8’s total solar eclipse in North America, check my main feed for new articles each day.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
