It all started with a few images that went viral on social media.
Over the past two months, photos have been circulating on platforms showing contrasting weather conditions in Turkey and Iran. While Turkey exhibits cloudy skies and snow-covered mountains, just across the border in Iran, there appears to be nothing but empty skies and dry mountains.
What seems to be a stark difference in rainfall and snowfall patterns between two neighboring countries, has since raised questions among Iranians as to why.
One theory going around suggests that Turkey is somehow stealing Iran’s clouds.“Cloud Stealing” is a term referring to the belief or accusation that countries are using technology to manipulate weather patterns to divert rain clouds away from a specific area.
This could be possible through a practice called cloud seeding, a weather modification technique that involves introducing certain substances into clouds to enhance their ability to produce rain or snow.
However, there are ongoing debates about the effectiveness of this procedure and experts have identified potential dangers that are associated with cloud seeding.
“The biggest adverse effect is generating suspicion that a neighboring country is either trying to steal their rain or perhaps wage surreptitious environmental warfare,” says James Fleming, an atmospheric scientist and historian of science at Colby College in Maine.
In addition, “clouds never stay where they are. They are ephemeral entities that form and dissipate in the dynamic environment,” adds Fleming.
So, even in the absence of foul play, there is no guarantee that the country doing the seeding would be the one that gets to enjoy the rain dropping from the clouds as they move around the sky.
Meanwhile, because of severe drought and decreasing precipitation in the Middle East, countries are exploring alternative methods to help them squeeze out as much water as possible from the clouds above.
Governments such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have initiated weather modification programs, opening doors for further accusations of environmental hostilities in the region already fraught with tension.
Pirates Of The Atmosphere
It is not the first time that the topic of cloud stealing has made headlines in the Islamic Republic. Authorities have long been suspicious of friends and foes manipulating the weather to create drought and cause harm.
Back in 2018, a senior member of Iran’s armed forces accused Israel and another unnamed country later identified as the UAE of intervening in the country’s climate and stealing its clouds and snow.
A couple of years before that, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made similar comments alleging that “enemies” are somehow destroying and diverting Iran’s share of rain clouds as part of some nefarious agenda.
On both accounts, the claims were dismissed by Iran’s Meteorological Organization and other environmental bodies in the country.
Now, once again, speculations of cloud theft have resurfaced, with Turkey being the alleged culprit. Adding fuel to the fire of suspicion, Iran’s top environmental official told reporters last month that a team has been designated to investigate why “weather fronts” seem to be disappearing over northern parts of the country.
Iran’s Department of Environment did not respond to a request for comment.
This time around, a concern among experts is that because of the power of social media and visual manifistation of the allegations, there is a higher likelihood of the public falling prey to misinformation about the environment they live in.
“The images belong to one specific moment in time,” says Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health.
“They have been purposely or naively selected to promote a narrative that has no scientific basis,” adds Madani.
The difference in precipitation patterns between nations can be explained through several factors. Some get more rain than others depending on how many seas are nearby, what direction the wind blows and how close they are to high-altitude mountains.
In the meantime, as most parts of Iran experience severe drought, the scientific community is drawing attention towards the root causes of the country’s water crisis.
“It’s easy to distract the public with conspiracy theories and seductive stories for a while but the real problem won’t be solved this way,” says Madani.
“In the end, it’s the people of Iran who are the real victims of this game,” he adds.
Strapped For Rain
Like most countries, Iran has a water year, a time period for which total precipitation levels are measured.
It starts somewhere around mid-September and lasts for 12 months. According to Iran’s Meteorological Organization, the rainfall situation this winter has been unsatisfactory and shows a 62% decrease compared to the long-term average.
But Iran’s water woes are neither new nor as a result of someone stealing its clouds. Just last summer, many provinces across the country ran out of water with people having to stand in lines to get drinking water from tanks stationed on the streets.
In 2021, water shortages got so bad in southwest and central Iran leading to nationwide protests with security agents using deadly force to disperse thirsty crowds demanding the revival of lakes and rivers that had dried up.
Fast-forwarding to now, “unfortunately, Iran’s precipitation records from the beginning of the year are extremely worrisome and indicate a widespread and serious drought,” says Madani, also a former deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment who resigned from his post in 2018 and left the country, facing accusations of spying for the West.
Obviously, “a country that is water bankrupt is naturally more vulnerable to drought,” adds Madani.
In simple words, “water bankruptcy” means that a country is using more water annually than it is replenishing. In Iran, this is a state resulting from decades of resource mismanagement, excessive dam building and inefficient agricultural practices, that have been exasperated by climate change.
Cloudy Policies
Cloud seeding and other weather modification technologies have existed for many years and are being used by nations all around the world.
China carried it out during the 2022 Winter Olympics to control weather conditions. According to reports, China also plans to modify the weather over half of its vast territory by 2025.
In the Middle East, the hottest and driest region of the planet, countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also ramping up efforts to gain access to more water through artifical means.
But these activities have their own set of advantages as well as drawbacks, experts say. “Any form of climate intervention or manipulation comes with its share of risks,” says Arvind Venkataramana, founder and executive director of the Centre for Sustainability, Innovation and Good Governance.
“Studies have shown some methods can cause further droughts and floods, could affect our food chain and add to geopolitical conflicts. Others have shown a whole range of benefits,” adds Venkataramana.
To better monitor weather modification practices that governments are investing in, experts belive that global intervention measures must become stronger.
“There is no need to start from scratch,” says Tracy Raczek, climate policy expert and former climate advisor to United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon.
“An international agreement already exists on this issue. Yet it is being neglected,” adds Raczek.
The Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques (ENMOD) went into effect in 1978 and has been ratified by 78 countries, including the United States, China, Britain, Germany, and Russia.
Nevertheless, “the existing legal measures and international agreements in place are weak,” says Madani.
“They are not advanced enough to deal with the modern and unprecedented problems the world faces today. So, they cannot really protect the rights of nations against new anthropogenic threats,” adds Madani.
Furthermore, “the international community needs to shore up international policy on the security risks of cloud seeding as well as other weather modification technologies and soon,” says Raczek.
“Crafting policy takes time,” adds Raczek.
