Topline
After a week of frequent and strong Northern Lights, a rare ground level event across North America and an X-rated solar flare, up to 16 states could see aurora after dark on Sunday, Nov. 16. According to a forecast by space weather experts at NOAA, a G1 or G2-rated geomagnetic storm puts northern states in with a chance of seeing the aurora borealis on then northern horizon — just as a major meteor shower gets underway.
Key Facts
Earth-orbiting satellites detected a major X4.0-class solar flare at 8:30 on Nov. 14. According to NASA, solar flares are powerful bursts of energy from the sun that can impact radio, power grids, GPS and pose risks to spacecraft and astronauts.
It came days after a massive X5.1 class solar flare — the strongest in over a year — that, together with two other solar flares, caused displays of aurora across all of North America.
NOAA’s forecast includes a G1-rated geomagnetic storm that could produce aurora viewlines that could see visibility stretch as far south as 12 U.S. states — Alaska and (northerly parts of) Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York and Maine. However, it could spike to G2, potentially making auroras visible in Oregon, Iowa, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
The Leonid meteor shower peaks overnight from Sunday, Nov. 16, into Monday morning, Nov. 17, with up to 15 “shooting stars” per hour visible in dark, clear skies. It’s expected to be almost as impressive overnight on Monday, Nov. 17, through Tuesday, Nov. 18.
Why A Solar Flare Sometimes Causes Northern Lights
Although an X4.0 is a significant solar flare, such bursts of energy travel at the speed of light and impact Earth within minutes; it’s what follows — a coronal mass ejection — that ultimately causes the Northern Lights a few days later. A CME is a cloud of charged particles that takes a few days to reach Earth. “If the shock from the CME associated with the X4 flare from Nov. 14 does impact Earth, and our timing is correct, brief enhancements could be seen during the first half of Nov. 16, prompting possible G1 (Minor) storm conditions,” reads a post by NOAA scientists. It notes that turbulence in the solar wind may cause the G1 conditions to become G2, which would potentially lead to additional states seeing aurora.
