The Los Angeles fires, which so far have claimed 5 lives and more than 1000 structures, have been making headlines not just for their intensity, but for what they signify about the future of wildfires in Southern California and beyond. Fire seasons, once confined to a few months of the year, now seem to be a persistent feature of life in many parts of the United States Extreme fire weather conditions are becoming more frequent, with dangerous implications for lives, property, and the environment. Here are five reasons why the Los Angeles county fires represent a disturbing new normal:
1. Increased Elevated Fire Weather Conditions
Extreme fire weather is driven by a combination of high temperatures, dryness, available fuel, and high winds. Southern California has been experiencing these elevated conditions since July, and they have shown no signs of letting up. Historically, fire-prone periods in the region were seasonal, peaking in late summer and early fall. Now, extreme fire weather has extended far beyond its usual window, creating a year-round threat.
These prolonged periods of high-risk conditions mean that any ignition source—whether natural or human-caused—has a greater chance of sparking a large-scale wildfire. With high winds prevalent, these fires can spread rapidly, putting even well-prepared communities at risk.
2. Overlap of Dry Conditions and Wind Events
While high-speed wind events are a familiar feature of Southern California’s climate, what’s different now is the persistent dryness that coincides with these winds. Typically, the region would see rainfall in the fall and early winter, dampening the risk of fire during the windy season. However, this year, dry conditions have continued into January, increasing the likelihood of devastating wildfires.
This overlap of dry conditions and wind events creates a dangerous synergy. Winds can cause fires to advance at astonishing speeds, sometimes as fast as two to three football fields per minute. They can also cause flames to jump highways and other natural firebreaks, making it harder for firefighting efforts to contain the blazes. Max Dugan-Knight, Climate Data Scientist at Deep Sky, said “There is no end to wildfire season in places like Los Angeles anymore.”
3. Hot Summers Followed by Absent Rainy Seasons
Southern California endured an exceptionally hot summer, but unlike past years, it was not followed by the typical fall and early winter rains. This lack of precipitation has left the landscape parched and ready to burn. Compounding the problem is the fact that the region experienced two consecutive years of above-average rainfall prior to this dry spell.
While heavy rainfall might seem beneficial, it can lead to an overgrowth of vegetation. When that vegetation dries out, it becomes highly flammable fuel, feeding larger and more destructive fires. This pattern of alternating extreme wet and dry periods is likely to continue, contributing to the increasing severity of wildfires in the region.
Lack of water is not only causing fires, but it’s also hurting efforts to fight them as hydrants run dry.
4. Extreme Fire Weather Is Becoming More Common Nationwide
According to a report from Deep Sky Research, extreme fire weather conditions are becoming more common across almost every part of the United States. The report analyzed fire weather trends and found that while only a few areas, such as parts of North Dakota and Minnesota, have seen a decrease in fire risk, most regions, including California, have experienced significant increases.
The findings are clear: wildfire risks are no longer confined to traditionally fire-prone regions. Even areas that historically saw little wildfire activity are now at greater risk due to changing climate patterns.
5. The Most Devastating Wildfires in U.S. History Have Been Linked to Extreme Fire Weather
Historically, the most destructive wildfires in U.S. history, the Camp Fire of 2018, Bay Area Fires of 2020, Dixie fires of 2021, and Yellowstone fires of 1988 have coincided with periods of extreme fire weather. While the exact causes of ignition can vary—from lightning strikes to human activity—it’s the presence of extreme fire weather that determines how rapidly and destructively a fire spreads. These fast-moving destructive fires have accounted for $18.9 billion in the US between 2001 and 2020.
The correlation between elevated fire weather index values and some of the deadliest fires in U.S. history is stark. Focusing on measurable conditions such as temperature, dryness, wind speed, and fuel availability provides a valuable tool for predicting and preparing for future wildfire risks.
A Call to Action: Understand Your Local Fire Risks
These fires are a stark reminder that extreme fire weather is a growing threat not just in California, but across the country. There are many variables in wildfire activity that are difficult to control, such as human behavior and lightning strikes. However, what can be measured and analyzed are the conditions that allow fires to spread rapidly and become catastrophic.
It’s helpful to look at a county-by-county breakdown of changing fire weather risks, which can demonstrate how local fire risks have evolved over time. The risks we face today are not the same as those from five, ten, or thirty years ago. Even if a region has not experienced major wildfires in the past does not mean it is safe from future threats.
Large wildfires don’t just cause immediate destruction—they also contribute to climate change by releasing significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This, in turn, exacerbates the conditions that lead to more frequent and severe fires.
As wildfires continue to grow in size and intensity, it’s clear that we need to take a proactive approach to managing fire risks. This means understanding the role of extreme fire weather, preparing for longer fire seasons, and addressing the broader issue of climate change. The LA fires are not just an isolated event—they are a warning of what’s to come if we fail to act.
Disclaimer: I work at Canadian direct air capture project developer, Deep Sky.
