Something big is happening at Figure. The humanoid robot company shipped only about 150 units last year, but has doubled shipments each month for the last three months, according to data shared on Threads by CEO Brett Adcock.
The data Adcock shared has no Y axis, so there’s no explicit numbers given.
However, given that an Omdia research report recently estimated Figure’s 2025 shipments at 150 and that the chart Adcock shared includes data all the way back to 2023, we can make some back-of-the-envelope deductions. While it’s true that doubling from a tiny starting point still makes for small numbers, if Figure ended 2025 at around 20-30 units per month, then it’s likely the last few months’ shipments look like this:
- Feb 2026: ~60
- Mar 2026: ~120
- Apr 2026: ~240
That’s not at the level of Agibot, which shipped 5,000 humanoids over the last three months, but it is impressive for a number of reasons. One, these are high-level, highly capable humanoid robots, not $5,000 toys or even $20,000 low-end robots, which will make up some significant percentage of Agibot’s sales. Two, this shows Figure is now starting to scale production, and Adcock recently told podcaster Shawn Ryan that the company plans to scale to millions of units. That’s not close yet, of course, but this looks like it could be the beginning of the curve.
What that means is the third significant fact: Figure must now believe that it has a capable enough platform to scale with.
This is one of the most difficult challenges for a humanoid robotics company: when to scale. Too early, and you risk depleting your cash while also disappointing the market and poisoning the well for future customers. Too late, and you risk letting competitors steal a march or three or ten on you and capture market share that you can’t get back later.
As a platform, Figure 03 looks impressive.
It has an upgraded main camera system as well as a camera in each hand, plus fingertip tactile sensors sensitive enough to detect forces as light as 3 grams. At launch it could handle domestic tasks like folding clothes and loading a dishwasher. In addition, Figure 03 achieved a 90% component cost reduction compared to Figure 02 … the kind of cost curve decline that makes consumer-scale deployment possible.
The other big news: Figure’s BotQ production facility is rated for up to 12,000 units per year: not “millions” scale, but definitely a significant step up.
Exponential curves are strange things. If Figure is genuinely doubling monthly, and if that continues even for another two or three months, the gap between it and Chinese humanoid robot companies – which is large – starts to look less permanent. The broader humanoid robot market shipped under 14,000 units globally in all of 2025. It’s forecast to nearly double each year for the next decade, hitting 2.6 million annual units by 2035, according to Omdia.
To do that, robot makers need to figure out – no pun intended – how to manufacture at scale without sacrificing quality. It’s possible Figure is approaching that point right now.
