It’s graduation season and an exciting time of year for many families. As the father of a college graduate in the Class of 2026, I strongly resonate with the moment. That’s why I was acutely aware of all of the outdoor graduation ceremonies this spring that were affected by rain. As a meteorologist, it baffles me in the current era of weather information that this is still happening. Let’s dig deeper.
Statements like “let’s hope” or “we’ll wait and see” are not viable planning strategies in the modern era of weather forecasting. Earlier this week, I was speaking with a colleague about a local high commencement ceremony being held outside. “If I was advising the school, I would suggest moving the ceremony up in time,” I told him that morning.
Why did I say that? “Locally heavy rainfall and a subsequent flash/urban flooding threat is possible given the moist environment, particularly where any training or anchoring of storms could occur. Exact timing of most widespread convection is a bit tricky, though redevelopment and more widespread coverage is favored by late afternoon into this evening,” wrote the National Weather Service on Friday morning.
I also examined the best high resolution forecast models. Twelve hours in advance, they clearly indicated that widespread rain would move into that area after 7 pm. The ceremony that my colleague spoke about started at or around that time. The school announced later in the afternoon that it was pushing back the start time. However, numerous showers were going to move through the area throughout the night. Ultimately, the ceremony was held in rainy conditions with a few breaks. I saw pictures of graduates and proud parents drenched.
From what I can tell, most of the students and parents took things in stride. However, one colleague posted, “It was a hot mess.” It will certainly be a memorable ceremony for the graduates. However, other folks were not as amused. In some parts of the country like Williamson County, Tennessee, families questioned why school officials moved ahead with outdoor ceremonies given the adverse weather conditions.
Look, I am not raining on any parades here or singling out any school districts. These graduates were probably giddy and should be excited about the pathways ahead. However, I also think about grandparents and other attendees who might have to endure such conditions. For my daughter’s graduation at the University of Georgia, both of her grandmothers were able to attend. They are both near 80, so it took planning to ensure a comfortable experience. I can’t imagine them having to endure rainfall, and thankfully, we had perfect conditions for her ceremony a couple of weeks ago. I was keeping a close eye out the entire time and was prepared to make other plans as needed.
Additionally, there are other considerations that may be overlooked. For example, certain hair textures react differently to rainfall. I have learned this over almost three decades of marriage to my wife. She and many of her peers avoid rainfall like the plague after a fresh visit to the hair salon. I suspect many people at those ceremonies were thinking, “Wow that’s a visit (and money) waisted.” If you think that is trivial, check out the cost of hair salon visits these days. More importantly, graduation is a special time. I think most people want to remember it for the moment itself rather than the weather conditions.
Let’s Talk About Motivated Reasoning
So, why do people or organizations proceed with events even though the weather forecast clearly calls for other actions? As I recently wrote at Forbes.com, people can struggle with precipitation forecasts, percent chance of rain, and the sporadic nature of rainfall. Additionally, people often misinterpret what they see on weather radar apps. They may see a clearing region and conclude things are going to be fine. However, in the moist pattern we are experiencing, new storms can easily pop up to fill those gaps. It reminds me of the MLB baseball executive that made a call not to close the roof on opening day based on a weather app. It rained and delayed the start of the game. I know people have apps and personal experience, but there is a reason we go to school to be meteorologists.
Over three decades in this field, I have learned how important motivated reasoning is when it comes to decisions. “One of the most significant ways information processing and decision-making becomes warped is through motivated reasoning, when biased reasoning leads to a particular conclusion or decision,” noted an article in Psychology Today. Lots of planning goes into a graduate ceremony. People have traveled and have other things to do on potential “make-up” days.
Contingency plans like makeup dates, alternative locations that can accomodate crowds or shifting start times create challenges too. Motivated reasoning basically means people see data or situations from a lens that aligns with what they want or need to happen. It’s a “cousin” to confirmation bias, which is a tendency to search for information or data that aligns with what we already believe and being dismissive of things that contradict those views.
Ultimately, people are probably going to complain irrespective of what decisions are made about the graduation ceremony. However, forecasts are certainly good enough, if you understand how to use them, to make decisions well in advance of most outdoor events. “A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time,” according to NOAA. Within two days, as we were with several of these graduation ceremonies, that accuracy number is likely even higher. People just have to be comfortable with making tough or unpopular calls in advance and being okay with the occasional negative or unanticipated outcomes.
