Hurricane Beryl continues to be a resilient and perplexing storm. It was already historic as the earliest Category 5 hurricane. However, hurricane experts have marveled at how the storm maintained or gained intensity in the midst of wind shear values that should have weakened it as many forecast models suggested. Track forecasts typically are better, on average, than intensity forecasts, and that has been the case with Beryl. As the hurricane passes over the Yucatan Peninsula at the time of writing, it is becoming increasingly apparent that a U.S. landfall is possible. Here’s the latest information.
If you live anywhere from Brownsville to Corpus Christi, your hurricane alerts should be active in terms of preparation. Let’s start with the good news, the National Hurricane Center reports, “Beryl has plateaued or filled a bit…. the aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of Beryl’s inner core from radar out of Cancun, Mexico has become more degraded.” The questions of the day are: How much of a turn Beryl makes as it enters the Gulf of Mexico? and How strong will it be?
The NHC discussion says, “The subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of Mexico.” That’s meteorological jargon that basically says the steering currents may likely become more favorable for a turn, particularly if Beryl gains intensity. Wind shear is expected to weaken, and some of the more reliable models are suggesting further intensification over the Gulf of Mexico.
Whether the storm makes a direct landfall in Texas or not, the region around the Texas and Mexico border could see 6 to 12 inches of rainfall and significant flooding. Strong winds, storm surge, and possible tornadoes are also possible as Hurricane Beryl approaches the coast. Likely impacts for the U.S. would start later this weekend so there is ample time to prepare.
Beryl has a history of rapid intensification so it is important to not make assumptions about strength based on the night before. You should monitor the evolving storm. There is plenty of high ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico right now. At times, it seems the energy in the water has been able to offset wind shear conditions, which will become more favorable.
