Most investors who have at least $1 million in investable assets are planning to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, per a new report from wealth manager UBS. The actual breakdown: 57% of the 971 U.S. investors UBS surveyed last month said they’re opting for Harris; 43% are planning on Trump.
And yet, those same investors say former President Donald Trump would actually be better for the economy—narrowly. UBS surveyed 971 U.S. investors about the election last month; 38% are Republicans, 34% are Democrats, and 26% are Independents.
Nearly all the respondents said the economy is their primary concern as they head to the ballot box. In second place was Social Security, followed by taxes and immigration.
Among millionaire Democrats, Harris captured 91% of the vote; 88% of millionaire Republicans said they’re going for Trump. Independent millionaires were split 60/40 for Harris and Trump respectively.
UBS asked the respondents, between Trump and Harris, who would be better equipped to “address the economy”. Trump edged Harris out, with 51% of respondents choosing him. He also beat Harris on the same question regarding taxes, nabbing 52% of respondents’ favor. But it’s not winner-takes-all; the investors told UBS Harris is better positioned to improve health care.
Perhaps that’s unsurprising; Trump is famously popular among high-net-worth individuals for his proposition to extend and expand his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. (Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently blamed the U.S.’s ongoing fiscal trouble on the Act, which she said is “responsible for many of the problems that we face now with our fiscal trajectory.)
Harris, on the other hand, only wants to cut taxes for those making less than $400,000 per year. Individuals (and corporations) earning more than that can expect to pay more taxes under a Harris administration.
Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire on January 1, 2026. If elected, he’d most likely extend the Act, while Harris would near-certainly overturn it.
The vast majority (77%) of investors said they’re likely to make changes to their portfolio before Election Day—many saying they’d add protections or increase investments and cash holdings. Should Harris win, they’re more eager to invest in healthcare, tech and sustainability sectors; defense, energy and industrial is most attractive if Trump heads back to the Oval Office.
“Clients and business owners around the world have their eyes on the U.S. elections and want to know what either outcome means for their investments and how it will affect them going forward,” the report quotes Iqbal Khan, UBS Global Wealth Management co-president, as saying.
Whichever way the election goes, just over half (55%) of the millionaires told UBS they’re “highly” confident about the direction of the economy. Just 43% said the same in 2020 in the months before the presidential election.
In tandem, 3 in 4 investors—almost 20% more than said the same in 2020—said they’re “highly optimistic” about their portfolio returns over the coming six months. Among business owners, 74% said they’re optimistic about their own business’ performance in the next year—a 6% rise from 2020.
Economic performance is “clearly a top concern,” Rob Karofsky, another co-president of UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote. “It’s encouraging to see a general increase in optimism as we navigate the volatile market landscape in an election year.”
