Election Day is less just over a week from now. We are also nearing the start of November, which is the last month in “hurricane season.” At the time of writing, people like me are watching the tropics and the Election Day forecasts for the U.S. Here’s the latest information.
Before looking at possible weather on Election Day, let’s start with the tropics. There is no immediate threat for tropical development through the beginning of this week according to the National Hurricane Center. I always celebrate messages like the one in the satellite map above. However, as we look further out, there is something worth watching. On Sunday morning NOAA tropical experts wrote, “A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.” The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 30 percent chance of development within seven days. They went on to say, “Some gradual development is possible toward the end of the week and over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.” Models are indicating that places like Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should pay attention in the coming week.
As of now, this system does not appear to be a threat to the U.S. during Election Day. That point brings me to a slight digression. Several days ago, a certain model showed a hurricane over or near Florida on Election Day. Repeat after me. It is irresponsible to post things like that two or more weeks out. The models are often in “fantasyland” at that range. My profession is dealing with a dangerous trend of people sharing information like that to get clicks, attentions, and like. Social mediarology is sowing confusion within the public. I recommend that you use the S.T.A.R method going forward – Stop, Think, Assess, and Reconsider before sharing weather information. It is important that you consider the source, timeframe, and context before sharing. My colleague Craig Setzer has the perfect response in the thread on X posted above.
Even as I discuss broad weather conditions on Election Day, it is in your best interest to always monitor the evolving forecast. Having said that, let’s peer into the days leading up to Election Day. The map above is from “one” deterministic outcome of the American GFS model and represents the potential weather a week from today. My trust in the models increases as we get into the three-to-seven day window. This information suggests that much of the Southeast, Northeast, and West will be relatively rain-free the Sunday before Election Day.
That blue H is high pressure. Generally, high pressure is associated with sinking air and clear conditions. In fact, since Hurricane Helene, high pressure has been the dominant feature here in the Southeast, and I am starting to worry about the lack of rainfall as we transition to November. High pressure will keep much of the eastern half of the U.S. relatively rain-free through Election Day. Some parts of the eastern U.S. could see record warmth in the week leading up to Election Day.
The area of rainfall in the middle of the U.S. and into the upper Midwest could persist into Election Day. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center explained that a sharp front in the middle of the country will be a rainmaker throughout the next week or so. They said, “The trailing portion of the front is forecast to slow and retreat into next weekend in response to robust renewed trough energy digging into an unsettled the West. This will lead to a resurgence of moderate/heavy rain for the south-central U.S. late week/weekend.”
Writing this weekend in USA Today, my colleague Doyle Rice said, “While the weather could play a role in this election, the forecast looks rather benign in much of the country on Nov. 5.” I tend to agree. Common sense and scholarly studies have revealed that poor weather can impact turnout, but I do not see weather as a major factor this cycle. Most of the country will have decent conditions, and the weather during the early voting period has been quite good throughout most of the country. A 2024 study published in the journal Political Geography explored voter patterns in North Carolina over the past decade or so. The research found that rainfall can dampen turnout, but alternative voting methods are starting to offset suppression.
As we saw during the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election and Hurricane Sandy, parts of the Southeast are still recovering from two devasting hurricanes, Helene and Milton. North Carolina and Florida were particularly impacted. Research findings are somewhat inconclusive on the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the presidential election, but it is clear to me that many families and businesses are still in recovery mode weeks after those storms. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has estimated recovery and damage costs at $53 billion. Honestly, that could still be on the low side and that is just for North Carolina. A rundown in Newser broke down the staggering numbers in that state. Similar numbers have been estimated for Hurricane Milton.
Speaking of Milton and Helene, early studies suggest that anomalously warm waters were significant contributors to the intensity and rainfall productivity with both of them. What do both major presidential candidates say about climate change? It is an issue lurking beneath the surface that has an impact on our infrastructure, national security, food prices, and health. Climate change does affect our “kitchen table” issues too. Ballotpedia has a good comparison of both campaign platforms on climate change.
