Tyson Fury is set to battle Oleksandr Usyk on Saturday in Riyadh for the WBO, WBA, WBC, and Ring Magazine heavyweight championship. Usyk won the first fight by split decision.
If Fury hopes to get a different result, he may have to address an issue that has reared its head in recent fights—especially the first meeting with Usyk.
According to data provided by Jabbr, a firm that has built technology designed to judge the impact and effectiveness of every punch thrown and landed, Fury’s work rate and effectiveness have faded in the second half of his fights.
Per Jabbr’s data analysis: “Unlike Usyk, Fury seems to be less strong on the finish. He’s been less successful in rounds 11 and 12 against his previous opponents compared to the earlier rounds against them. He’s actually getting out-landed on average in round 12 against his previous opponents.”
This trend continued against Usyk.
In the first fight with Usyk in May, “Rounds 1 to 7 is a fairly even back-and-forth fight on the stats, but in round 8 Fury drops dramatically across most metrics,” says the Jabbr data analyst. “His aggression drops almost in half, and he’s out-landed more than 3 to 1 on the High Impacts. The round looks to be a turning point in the fight. He recovers a bit in rounds 11 and 12, especially on aggression, but still getting out-landed overall.”
In the ninth round of the first fight, Usyk hurt Fury badly and scored the knockdown that dramatically shifted the fight’s momentum. If the rematch with Usyk goes the distance, Fury’s tendency to fade could come back to bite him again.
Fury threw more punches than Usyk in the first fight, but it was predominantly because of his jab in the early rounds. As you can see from the blue and red indicators on the graph above, Usyk’s pressure, aggression, landed punches, and high-impact shots massively outweighed Fury.
With Fury struggling to keep pace later in fights, you have to wonder how much the extra weight he’s carrying could exacerbate the issue. On Friday, Fury weighed in at 281 pounds. That’s the heaviest Fury has ever been for a fight as a professional and a full 55 pounds heavier than Usyk.
The extra size appears to be a calculated gamble by Fury. It would appear he is coming into the fight heavier in an effort to bully Usyk with inside fighting. It’s also a potential indication that Fury doesn’t plan to allow the fight to go deep.
Fury is likely fighting to knock Usyk out and hopes that his larger frame will aid in that mission. If Fury can’t get the job done early and Usyk is able to do effective body work, he could drag the Gypsy King into deep waters again.
If that happens, Usyk might not simply win the rematch. He could secure the knockout victory he almost earned in the first meeting. Here is a look at the fight card in Riyadh:
- Oleksandr Usyk (c) vs. Tyson Fury
- Moses Itauma vs. Demsey McKean
- Johnny Fisher vs. Dave Allen
- Dennis McCann vs. Peter McGrail
- Isaac Lowe vs. Lee McGregor
