An interesting start to 2025 for Microsoft, with another setback after the surprising news that Google’s already dominant Chrome was growing more quickly than its own Edge browser as 2024 ended, despite the constant nags and ads across Windows pushing users in the opposite direction.
The new data pointing in the wrong direction is even more worrying, with December proving to be another month when Windows 10’s market share increased as Windows 11’s decreased, despite this being the year the older version of the OS turns end-of-life, with only a $30 paid one-year-only option standing between 850 million users and an alarming lack of security updates.
All was going relatively well until last October, with Windows 11 posting its best numbers yet as it crossed the 35% line, with Windows 10 dropping down towards 60% for the first time. Those were not good numbers, far from it, but with a year to run (at that point) until the October 2025 deadline, it did seem that the tide might finally be turning. But fast forward two months and Windows 10 has recovered around 3% as Windows 11 has dropped back down towards 34%. These reversed trend lines are now clear. The number of Windows users at risk is currently over 65% and growing monthly.
This is not a coincidence. On October 31, Microsoft finally announced an extended support option for Windows 10 users, with a further—final—twelve months available for a one-time $30 fee. As I commented at the time, “this runs the risk of simply delaying the problem while undermining the security imperative that Microsoft has been pushing for Windows 11, that marriage of secure hardware and software… At last count, estimates are that there remain 900 million PCs running Windows 10, of which only 400 million are not technically capable of the leap to Windows 11.”
And so here we are—maybe. Windows 10 is clearly more loved than its younger sibling, and whether all the holdouts will pay the $30 or not, the feeling now is the hard line in October 2025 is not quite so hard anymore. Could Microsoft u-turn nearer the time and maintain critical updates for all for nothing—under the guise of keeping its vast ecosystem protected at a time of heightened risk. Again—maybe.
The situation remains stark. Somewhere between 850 and 900 million Windows 10 users are heading towards end of support this year. Microsoft has confirmed its hardware hurdle is not going away and is pestering Windows 10 users to make the switch. But instead, tens of millions are moving in the wrong direction. Should that continue, we could find ourselves with 70% or more of the market running a quasi-obsolete OS by the fall, with less than 30% having made the switch for a secure future.
And of those 850-900 million users, there are around 400 million PCs that cannot upgrade. And whether this is a can’t or won’t issue, there is still the small matter of a huge landfill problem coming when those PCs eventually—we hope—do get changed out. Yes, the can has been kicked down the road, but it has not gone away. And the new risk is that the reversed trend includes users that would have upgraded but have not, and who neglect to pay the $30 fee. All of which means more risk. A quick skim of recent security headlines tells you this is a particularly worrying time for this to be happening.
All eyes on the next 2-3 months stats to see if this is a blip or something much more worrying.
