We are fast approaching a crunch point for Microsoft and hundreds of millions of users sticking with software that will no longer receive security updates. This unprecedented situation could lead to security nightmare for the company and for the millions left exposed to an increasingly dangerous cybersecurity landscape.
Microsoft’s free upgrade offer to Windows 11 remains open, albeit only for those with the right spec of PC. Combined with constant warnings and nags, it is finally putting a dent into the problem. February saw Windows 10 hit a new low, as tens of millions of users suddenly, finally switched to Windows 11, per the latest data from Statcounter.
Last year ended badly as regards the Windows 11 upgrade program, with users seemingly ditching Windows 11 to return to Windows 10 in November and December. That left an almost 30% gap between the two, with Windows 10 stubbornly holding above a 60% market share and Windows 11 seemingly unable to get past the mid-30s.
But 2025 has brought two months of accelerating upgrades, and by the end of February —according to this data — Windows 10 was finally down below 60% (58.7%) and Windows 11 was heading towards 40% (38.13%). This 20-point gap is the narrowest it’s been and we’re likely bumping up against those that can’t instead of those that won’t.
The reversal late last year was likely down to Microsoft confirming a one-time, 12-month security extension for Windows 10 users willing to pay the company $30. But the news flow since on security, features and risks has made that seem less appealing.
This year has brought some confusion on whether the free upgrade to Windows 11 is time-boxed and will be withdrawn. Microsoft says it will not for those with the right hardware, as long as it is a fully licensed Windows 10 machine.
Meanwhile, the task of convincing those without the right hardware to buy new PCs continues, triggering what some have warned will be a landfill catastrophe with all those unusable devices. Microsoft has again promoted the security benefits of new hardware running Windows 11, even as it clamps down on upgrade workarounds.
Over the coming months we will find out where that hardware red line is, as upgrades slow towards the October 14th deadline. Will Microsoft remove the $30 hurdle for those stuck on Windows 10? We will find out. But the nightmare of all those devices being exposed to any and all vulnerabilities that hit month by month will become very real.
