Quantum computing might seem like “just another” new technology, like the internet, cloud computing and AI.
In fact, it’s something rather different – more similar to the leap forward from the earliest valve-based computers to modern transistors and microprocessors.
These paradigm shifts in compute don’t just bring us faster computers— they bring computers that work with data in entirely new ways. In the case of quantum computers, this means leveraging the weird and wonderful properties of quantum science, like superposition and quantum tunneling, to complete some tasks millions of times more quickly than classical computers.
Make no mistake – quantum computing is a big deal and will redefine the way we use computers to understand the real world. From simulating the complex interactions between molecules that make modern medicine possible to predicting the behavior of chaotic systems like financial markets and the weather.
Recent breakthroughs include the achievement of quantum supremacy— maybe (We’ll explore this below.) But for most of us, quantum computing is far from an everyday part of life, and huge opportunities are still there for the taking.
So, let’s take a look at the major developments we can expect to see as the future unfolds.
Quantum Today
We start our roadmap with quantum computing, which has already achieved several significant milestones and is moving out of labs and into businesses. Media coverage often revolves around the issue of quantum supremacy – the point where quantum computers will perform tasks that would be impossible or impractical for “classical” computers.
Google claimed to have achieved it in 2019 with its 54-bit Sycamore quantum processor, but its performance was later beaten by classical computers. China’s University Of Science And Technology once again made the claim in 2020, and most recently, D-Wave, which sold the first commercial quantum computers in 2011, carried out a material simulation in 20 minutes that would take the most powerful supercomputers almost a million years.
As well as becoming more powerful, quantum is also starting to become accessible. Tech giants including Amazon, Google and Microsoft offer quantum-as-a-service, bringing the barrier to entry lower than ever, and paving the way for anyone with ideas to start building quantum applications to fit their needs.
Applied Quantum Supremacy
So, it’s all well and good that quantum computers can beat classical computers at hugely complicated theoretical calculations in laboratory conditions. A more significant milestone will be reached when they offer real improvements when it comes to running practical applications.
Exactly when this will happen has been the subject of some debate. The CEO of Nvidia caused quantum computing stock prices to drop when he recently said practical quantum computing was “decades away” (he later admitted he might be wrong about this).
Google’s director of Quantum AI, however, has said he believes it could be as little as five years until quantum computers become the go-to option for common tasks that they’re more suitable for than classical computers.
Quantum Encryption
At some point in the not-so-far-off future, quantum computers will become powerful enough to easily crack many forms of digital encryption. Unfortunately, this includes some public key security protocols like RSA cryptography, which, among other things, is used to secure private conversations, financial transactions and government communications systems.
This is not unforeseen, and for some time, cybersecurity researchers have been working on the challenge of creating quantum-safe cryptography. Former U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order making this a national security priority.
As the era of useful, powerful, accessible quantum computing dawns, we will see a race to find and protect systems that could become compromised. Back in 2016, as the scope of the problem became apparent, Dr. Muchele Mosca of the Institute For Quantum Computing estimated a one in seven chance that public key encryption would become worthless by 2026 and a fifty-fifty chance of it happening by 2031.
More Reliable Quantum Computing
Technically, the term is fault-tolerant quantum computing. The qubits that quantum computers use to process data have to be kept in a delicate state – sometimes frozen to temperatures very close to absolute zero – in order to stay stable and not “decohere”. Keeping them in this state for longer periods of time requires large amounts of energy but is necessary for more complex calculations.
Recent research by Google, among others, is pointing the way towards developing more robust and resilient quantum methods. This includes trapped ion quantum computing, which isolates positively charged ions in a way that makes them stable for longer periods of time. Another technique demonstrated by scientists at QuTech involves measuring the spin of electrons inside diamonds. It’s predicted that truly fault-tolerant quantum computers could be a reality by 2030.
Quantum AI
One of the most exciting prospects ahead of us involves applying quantum computing to AI. Firstly, many AI algorithms involve solving the types of problems that quantum computers excel at, such as optimization problems. Secondly, with its ability to more accurately simulate and model the physical world, it will generate huge amounts of synthetic data. This data will more closely resemble real-world data than existing synthetic data, down to the molecular or sub-atomic level, while also being far cheaper and easier to produce. Work is already ongoing to make this a reality – Quantinuum is focusing its efforts on developing the machine learning techniques needed for quantum-powered natural language processing. It’s hard to put a timescale on this one as breakthroughs could occur any day, but I predict we can expect to see progress within five to 10 years.
Further Ahead
Looking beyond the next two decades, quantum computing will be changing the world in ways we can’t even imagine yet, just as the leap to transistors and microchips enabled the digital world and the internet of today.
It will tackle currently impossible problems, help us create fantastic new materials with amazing properties and medicines that affect our bodies in new ways, and help us tackle huge problems like climate change and cleaning the oceans.
Key challenges, like the risk of exacerbating inequality if access is limited to the rich and the significant energy demands, will need to be addressed. But make no mistake, quantum computing is on its way, and its impact will be felt by us all. Those who don’t want to risk missing out should start preparing for it now.
