Trump’s first trade deal might be a ‘nothingburger’ but stock investors like the taste of it anyway

Global markets largely rose this morning as investors appear to be betting that President Trump will eventually compromise on much of his tariff agenda, and that although tariffs will remain in place they will sit at the 10% level—lower than some had predicted.

Stocks rose this morning across global markets as investors digested the few details available on the trade deal announced yesterday between the U.S. and the U.K. They also looked favorably upon comments by President Trump that the tariffs he has proposed for China will probably come down.

The U.K. deal allows Britain to export 100,000 vehicles a year to the U.S. at a 10% tariff. Anything above that will be taxed at 25%. Steel and aluminum can go to the U.S. tariff-free.

The implication is that the baseline 10% tariff will likely stay in place globally but there can be industry-specific carve-outs. That’s good news for investors compared to the tariff schedule President Trump had previously proposed, which included tariffs up to 145%.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.44% in early trading today. It closed down 0.32% yesterday as investors appeared to have sold on the news after buying the rumor before the deal was officially announced. Also, the Bank of England cut its base interest rate yesterday.

With the U.K. deal in place and a possible pact with China coming down the pipe, investors are buying again this morning. The sentiment among analysts is that there is less to the U.K. deal than meets the eye. It’s a “nothingburger,” Tim Meyer, a trade law professor at Duke University, told Bloomberg. Counterintuitively, that’s good news for equities—the implication being that it could have been much, much worse.

The “U.K.-U.S. trade deal is symbolic at best,” according to George Vessey of Convera. “But we think it reinforces our view that tariffs are unlikely to go away anytime soon.”

In cryptocurrency, Bitcoin sailed past $100,000 yesterday, peaking at just under $104,000. Crypto stocks Coinbase and MicroStrategy both rose more than 9%, in tandem.

Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:

The S&P 500 rose 0.58% yesterday and S&P futures are up this morning by 0.3%. The index is down -3.70% YTD.
Palantir was up 8% yesterday.
Bitcoin hit $100,000 again. It was over $103,000 this morning.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.6% this morning.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.44% in early trading today.
Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.33% in early trading.
Markets in China and India fell.