The Reconciliation Bill (also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill”) was passed by the US House of Representatives by one vote. It proposes to eliminate tax credits and other funding for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy. According to a Princeton University energy policy report, the House-passed version of the Bill, currently under consideration in the Senate, raises three red flags: for our household energy bills, our economy, and our environment.
Household Energy Costs
The House bill would raise US household and business energy expenditures by 25 billion USD annually in 2030 and over 50 billion USD in 2035. An average household will see a rise in energy costs of $100-$160 per year in 2030, and between $270 and $415 per year in 2035. This amounts to a 9% average rise in energy prices across the U.S.in 2030 — but as much as 17% in TX, OK and PA. The energy price increases come at a time when more than a third of Americans are struggling to afford their power bill. The situation is worse for renters and those making under $50,000 per year, nearly one-half of whom struggle to pay their electric bills (compared to about a third in 2023), according to the electric utility industry group Energy Central. The increase in household energy expenditures is because the Reconciliation Bill would repeal most financial incentives for building renewable electricity sources like solar, wind, and battery storage, which now generate electricity cheaper than do fossil fuels.
US Competitiveness
Older folks may remember when the Japanese beat out American auto manufacturers because the US companies refused to recognize the burgeoning demand for smaller vehicles. The House version of the Reconciliation Bill will help America repeat this mistake. While Chinese manufacturer BYD is moving ahead with inexpensive, high quality EVs, the Reconciliation Bill could reduce annual US sales of electric vehicles by roughly 40% in 2030 and end America’s battery manufacturing boom. This despite a recent 15% growth in EV sales in the U.S., a near quadrupling in Brazil, sevenfold increase in Viet Nam, and 50% increase in sales in India during the first quarter of 2024. According to the International Energy Agency, the maturing EV market has shown robust growth, with 2024 sales to surpass those of 2023 by more than 20% and EVs to reach a share in total car sales of more than one-fifth. If the US is to remain competitive in a global market, it needs to expand its EV manufacturing capacity.
The solar industry faces similar threats. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, Texas, home to the fastest-growing solar market in the country, will lose 34,100 jobs by 2030. Florida, a state that has already installed enough solar capacity to power 2 million homes, stands to lose nearly 22,000 jobs. Were the incentives included under the Biden administration for renewables like solar and wind be maintained, we would reduce American dependence on foreign oil, and thus boost our national security.
“You can’t overstate how significant this will be in weakening the US’s position. With inflation, tariffs and rising electricity use, it really couldn’t come at a worse time. It’s a really damaging bill.”
Rob Orvis, Energy Innovation, as quoted in The Guardian
Environment
The result of proposed tax policy changes in the House-passed Reconciliation Bill would significantly slow US progress towards renewable energy and a healthier environment. According to Energy Innovation, a non-partisan think tank, repealing federal clean energy funding and tax credits would increase air pollution, particularly impacting those who live near power plants. Climate emissions would also rise, an outcome that impacts all of us regardless of where we live. Interestingly, the new field of attribution science makes it possible to determine the contribution of climate change to a single extreme weather event, like a particular heat wave or flood, and to calculate the proportional responsibility for that event of a specific source of emissions, like a fossil fuel company. This ability to follow disasters to their source is being used in an increasing number of lawsuits around the world.
Getting back to the House version of the Reconciliation Bill, its impact will be to increase US greenhouse gas emissions by roughly a half billion metric tons per year by 2030 and more than 1 billion metric tons per year by 2035 – the equivalent of adding 219 million cars to the road. The House-passed bill would also kill the nascent clean hydrogen, CO2 management, and nuclear power sectors.
Rob Orvis, senior director at Energy Innovation, captured the three clean energy-related impacts of the current Reconciliation Bill in comments to The Guardian: “This bill is worse than what people envisioned – it pulls the rug out from facilities banking on [EV and clean energy] incentives, it raises everyday household costs by hundreds of dollars and undercuts any sort of action on climate change.”
Government incentives for EV and solar power have been an unusual coming together of our household finance, economic, and environmental interests. They have contributed to economic growth and declining climate emissions. Let’s try to keep it that way in the future.
