Apple’s share of new smartphone activations just hit a six-year low as a percentage of new sales in the U.S., according to research firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP). Apple is now capturing only 33% of new sales, according to the report, a fraction it hasn’t seen since 2018.
“Over the past four quarters, iPhone share of activations fell from 40% to 33%,” say analysts Michael Levin and Josh Lowitz. “While we have reason to believe iPhone’s share of the installed smartphone base is higher, the reality of sales market share is a more difficult situation for Apple.”
In early and mid-2023, iPhones represented a robust 40% share of all smartphone activation in the U.S. That declined to 36% by the end of the year, and hit a low of 33% in early 2024.
Part of the problem?
Apple’s iPhones are too high quality and last too long. As the prices of smartphones have gone up, their durability did at the same time, Lowitz and Levin say. Plus, they are very expensive.
Historically, Apple devices have tended to last longer than the average Android device. Previous CIRP data suggests the average age of iPhone owners’ previous phones is increasing: 34% upgraded from a three-year-old phone last year, while in 2019, only 26% had a phone that old. When your new phone has a $1,000+ sticker price, that can tend to delay upgrades to the latest and greatest.
Another big factor, however, is likely Apple’s product refresh cycle.
Apple tends to introduce new iPhones around September, which positions them very well for the big Christmas shopping season. The iPhone 14 launched on September 7 of 2022, and the current top of the line, the iPhone 15, launched on September 12 of 2023. That naturally tends to concentrate new activations in the fourth calendar quarter and first calendar quarter of sequential years: people are getting their shiny new toys.
If you’re interested in a new iPhone in the summer, however, you’re probably looking forward to whenever the new model will launch with better features and new technology.
That said, if Apple’s iPhone sales percentage is the lowest it’s been in six years as CIRP data suggests, that’s obviously a change, and not an ideal one for Apple. One factor CIRP highlights is that the pace of innovation has slowed: the “rapid escalation of features” has slowed, the analysts say.
Apple is trying to combat this with its iPhone Upgrade Program, which is essentially a monthly subscription plan that will give you the latest and greatest iPhone every single year, but at $40/month for a low-end model to almost $75/month for the iPhone 15 Pro Max with one terabyte of local memory, it’s not cheap.
Ultimately, as phones now cost as much or more than computers, the upgrade cycle may continue to slow.
“The move from two-year subsidized phone purchase contracts to more transparent phone purchase plans has motivated many smartphone owners to wait a little longer to upgrade from their current phone,” CIRP says. “That may be affecting Apple sales a bit more than their Android competitors.”
