Apple’s next big product, its mixed-reality headset called the Vision Pro, is coming in 2024. Apple’s only clue as to availability is that it will be “early 2024”. It now looks like we can be much clearer as to when it’s coming, and it’s sooner than many had thought.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TFI Securities, in a new note this week, has claimed that the $3,499 device is in mass production right now, and “will begin mass shipments in the first week of January 2024.”
Which would mean what, exactly, for when it will actually go on sale? Kuo says, “Vision Pro will most likely hit the store shelves in late January or early February based on the current mass shipment schedule.”
This is very different to what had previously been predicted. Just last month, in his Power On newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman had said that Apple’s promise of early would mean “some time around March.” This new date is a full month or more sooner.
To be fair to Gurman, he’s right to change his prediction if the information changes. And last week on Bloomberg he adjusted his expectations as well. Gurman said, “Apple Inc. is ramping up production of the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset, setting the stage for a launch by February, according to people with knowledge of the matter.”
Gurman’s change is prompted by his belief, like Kuo, that manufacturing is moving at full speed, and the intention is for “units to be ready by the end of January, with the retail debut planned for the following month.”
Kuo’s report came later, so it could have more up-to-date information. Kuo says that Vision Pro is, “the most important product for Apple for 2024.” I think that’s right. And Kuo predicts shipments next year to be around 500,000 units.
Kuo also says, “If user feedback on Vision Pro is better than expected, it will help strengthen the market consensus that ‘Vision Pro is the next star product in consumer electronics’ and the related supply chain stock price.”
Even if there is a discrepancy between the two analysts as to the exact date, it seems clear that Apple is very much living up to its claim of early 2024 for the release.
This all chimes with Apple’s recent press activity, with selected U.S. journalists—the Vision Pro is first being released in the States only. The reporters were encouraged to shoot spatial video on iPhones and watch it back on the headset. The responses have been very positive.
And if Apple knows anything, it really knows how to build excitement in a timely and effective way.
All of which points to a release date on January 26, February 2, February 9 or February 16 2024. My gut feeling is February 2 or February 9 is the most likely. More as we have it.
