The signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Whitehouse on August 8, 2025, raises the question of whether a similar peace deal could also be signed with Armenia’s other antagonistic neighbor to the west. Armenia and Türkiye are not at war, but they do not have diplomatic relations and harbor immense disdain for each other owing to divergent interpretations of history. There are also some territorial disputes along the volcanic border region. Mount Ararat, which is within Turkish borders, holds particular Biblical significance as the landing spot for Noah’s Ark.
For predominantly Christian Armenia, Mount Ararat is also a national symbol which figures prominently in local folklore and is seen on national stamps and currency. Yet, the importance of a detente with its G20 neighbor is paramount for Armenia’s pragmatic President Nikol Pashinyan. He has been trying to even change the way natural landmarks are perceived by the population to mitigate the atavistic contempt for Türkiye. Instead of Mount Ararat, he has promoted Mount Aragats, a dormant volcano within Armenia and the country’s highest mountain, as a new national symbol thereby favoring a “naturalized” form of reconciliation.
Among the various states that emerged from the demise of the Soviet Union, Armenia had the most well-established diaspora. Owing to a history of marginalization and oppression from various neighboring powers, particularly in the earlier part of the twentieth century, Armenians fled their ethnic homeland in alarming numbers. The mass-killings of more than a million Armenians between 1915 to 1923 by Turks is recognized by notable scholarly organizations and twenty countries as ‘genocide,’ and led to rapid migration during this period. Out of an estimated 11 million ethnic Armenians worldwide, only 3 million actually reside in Armenia (about one-third of whom reside within the capital Yerevan), while the rest are distributed primarily across Russia, the United States, France, Argentina, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Canada, Ukraine, Greece, and Australia.
For the small population of Armenians residing in their homeland, improving the economic plight of the country should be the foremost priority. Yet the diaspora tends to be more nationalistic and also holds considerable power through remittances and private sector investment. President Pashinyan has been navigating this space carefully as his own approval ratings are at under 20% (though he is still deemed the most trusted politician in the country). In June, 2025 there was a historic meeting between the Armenian and Turkish presidents in Istanbul which was meant to pave the way for normalization, once the conflict with Azerbaijan was resolved.
Along the Armenian-Turkish border there has been a long history of environmental cooperation, particularly over water resources. My former doctoral student, Mehmet Altingoz, wrote part of his dissertation on the hydrological cooperation between local communities along the border. This riparian cooperation was galvanized by a “friendship dam” built during the Soviet era on the Akhuryan River. Unfortunately, this localized cooperation did not translate to any improvement in relations between the two countries after Armenian independence in 1991. However, now that there is momentum towards peace at the national level, the localized cooperation could help to quell opposition from hard-liners and exemplify opportunities for trust.
Armenia and Türkiye are both part of the greater Black Sea drainage basin and are members of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). The ecological imperatives which underpin the Black Sea region in terms of fisheries, navigational access, water quality and potential for tourism development can all be attractive features to move towards peace. As President Trump considers his next peace overture, the Armenian-Turkish detente is a natural next step in both literal and figurative terms.
