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Nowhere are the shockwaves of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2024 presidential race being felt more sharply than in the environmental community, spawning worries the next administration will reverse the climate goals and landmark legislation of the current one. Climate policy wasn’t a hot topic during the 2024 campaign, and that’s unfortunate because a highlight of the Biden administration was historic legislation to fund the transition to a clean-energy economy, baked into the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act.
Reversing those laws could be done through Congress, but that wouldn’t be a popular move as much of the funding created by the legislation is flowing into red states for factories and power projects in the Southeast and Midwest run by Republicans. He could go after things like the $7,500 tax credit for purchases of qualified electric vehicles, possibly with an executive order, despite the fact that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company is a prime beneficiary of them, may play some sort of advisory role in his Cabinet. It wouldn’t be a popular move with the public, which has been buying lots more EVs in the past few years, but could happen.
U.S. energy needs are growing substantially and though Trump has vowed to accelerate production of oil and gas, which is already at an all-time high under Biden, it’s unlikely that major solar, wind and battery storage projects will be derailed. Again, they’ve become too critical, particularly in highly Republican states like Texas where they helped keep the grid operating this year during extreme weather conditions. Offshore wind projects, which are just beginning to crank up, may well be at risk under Trump, who’s promoted the false idea that they kill whales.
He’ll likely direct federal regulators to toss out or ease many Biden-era rules, including tougher vehicle efficiency standards and power plant emissions limits, despite the fact they help improve overall environmental quality as well as curbing carbon pollution. And given that he pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord in 2016, it won’t be surprising if he again announces the nation will stop participating in global treaties aimed at reversing the worst aspects of climate change, even as temperatures hit new records year by year. Already his transition team is signaling plans to massively alter agencies currently working to regulate and monitor climate issues.
The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which Trump hasn’t endorsed but may prove impactful on his policy priorities, recommends disturbing moves like dismantling the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an irreplaceable source of climate data. Barring a hurricane wiping out Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida estate, there are no indications the next president has had a come-to-Jesus moment with regard to the climate crisis.
It remains to be seen if Musk and other wealthy Silicon Valley backers that supported Trump during the campaign will try to influence his thinking on clean power and climate change. They might, perhaps, point out that a U.S. retreat on cleantech only benefits China, already the global leader in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, or European companies that are vying to profit from the EU’s tough climate rules.
Though much of Trump’s first administration is remembered for hostility to environmental action, he did approve the bipartisan Energy Act of 2020 before he left office, which included a number of positive elements including tougher rules for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and funding for renewable energy and carbon capture projects.
The only certainty is Trump doesn’t share Biden’s climate concerns. The year ahead will be rocky so brace for impact.
The Big Read
Climate Consequences Of A Second Trump Term
The policies of the incoming Trump administration will likely be a significant setback on climate progress. But there are reasons to hope for resilience.
Trump is expected to make sweeping changes to climate reporting and regulation. Initiatives like the SEC’s climate disclosure rule and the Federal Reserve’s climate stress testing exercises could be shelved or severely curtailed. But the federal government is only one player, and California will be a critical counterbalance.
Trump is also widely expected to leave the Paris Agreement, as he did in his previous term. This withdrawal would not only reduce America’s climate commitments, but also undermine the motivation of major emitters like China and India to uphold their pledges. But during the previous withdrawal, U.S, cities, states and companies mobilized under the “We’re Still In” initiative despite the lack of federal support, and a similar dynamic could happen this time.
Finally, Trump is expected to gut the Inflation Reduction Act, the cornerstone of President Biden’s climate policy. He may also increase oil and gas leases on federal lands. But green energy growth is more resilient than it might seem, with renewables being adopted in red states like Texas and Iowa.
Read more here.
Hot Topic
Michael Webber, energy researcher and University of Texas professor, on the outlook for clean power under Trump
Will Trump carry through with plans to roll back Biden’s clean energy agenda?
I don’t think a lot of the energy legislation is actually at risk of being repealed. There are four pieces of legislation. There’s the Energy Act of 2020, the final bill Trump signed in December 2020, so I don’t think he’s going to repeal or rescind his own thing. Then there’s the Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. How do you repeal a bipartisan thing? There’s the CHIPS Act, which is also bipartisan. How do you repeal that? The IRA maybe was partisan and therefore could be repealed, except that the money is mostly flowing into Republican districts and multiple Republican House members have already said on the record, “please don’t repeal it.”
Even if there’s control of the House and the Senate, there’s not so much control of the House that you can overcome 10 or 15 members of your own party that don’t want to repeal. I actually think it’ll be hard to get rid of a lot of the laws that are on the books. The outlook is actually pretty good for a lot of the legislation in terms of being sticky – and it was designed to be sticky. I guess that’s good news.
What’s likely to change?
I have heard from people whispering to me that if Republicans get control of all three branches, they will repeal it and then replace it with just the parts they like. I think they actually like wind and solar and geothermal, but they don’t like the prevailing wage requirements or some of the requirements about a diverse workforce or paying people fairly, those kinds of things. Those bits just strike them as “woke mind virus” or pro-labor union. So there might be some of those bits that get stripped out, but fundamentally, I think the pro-development pieces, especially for wind farms, solar farms, batteries, are going to last. Most of the legislation is sticky because in Texas it’s very popular in Republican areas, for example. And there are some pieces like the hydrogen hubs and carbon capture hubs that have a lot of Republican support.
There’s newer bipartisan agreement around critical minerals and domestic sourcing and the Nuclear Advance Act. There’s actually more bipartisanship with energy than any other topic, so there’s a side of things that’s not going to change.
One thing that has a target on its back might be the electric vehicle tax credits. I hear a lot of people say, “we hate that, we’re going to get rid of them.” However, Elon Musk helped get them elected, and so are they going to yank the EV tax credits, except Teslas might not qualify for them anymore. You might have a situation where you have EV policies but changes to the tax credit. I think it’s fairly complex terrain and it’s complex enough terrain that it inhibits the ability to do drastic changes.
The Senate is a pretty robust majority [for Republicans] but it may be a slim majority in the House. This reminds me of Obamacare. They said, “We’re going to repeal Obamacare,” but they never actually repealed it.
What Else We’re Reading
With ready orders and an energy czar, Trump plots pivot to fossil fuels
Trump win worries international partners ahead of COP29 climate summit
Despite climate concerns, young voter turnout slumped and split support between the parties
Meta’s plan for nuclear-powered AI data center thwarted by rare bees
A record number of states are in drought
How these teenagers’ lives have been upended by climate change
China urges U.S. to hold the line on climate policy, regardless of election outcome
Canada moves to limit oil and gas industry carbon emissions
‘Virtually certain’ 2024 will be the hottest year on record, EU climate body says
Musk believes in global warming. Trump doesn’t. Will that change?
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