Good morning. As consumer pressure becomes more visible in the restaurant industry, Cava remains focused on growth and building its leadership pipeline.
Cava, the Mediterranean-inspired fast-casual restaurant, reported its Q3 earnings last week. Revenue increased 20% to $289.8 million. However, the company its full-year sales growth guidance, reporting flat foot traffic and a 1.9% increase in comparable sales—short of Wall Street expectations for 2.7%.
Cava’s reduction in expectations for the rest of the year factors in a very uncertain consumer economic dynamic, CFO Tricia Tolivar told me. Amid a government shutdown, consumers are feeling more pressure. “We took a very thoughtful and judicious approach to our guidance,” Tolivar said.
In recent earnings calls, the CEOs of Chipotle, Cava, and McDonald’s each pointed to consumer stress—particularly among younger or lower-income customers—as a headwind. These remarks support the idea of a K-shaped economy, where high-income earners continue spending broadly while lower-income households are tightening their belts, Fortune reported.
Cava has been very measured on price increases, Tolivar said. Since the end of 2019, Cava has increased menu prices by roughly 15%—a rate below both inflation (about 23%) and typical menu increases across quick-service restaurants (about 30%+). The company raised menu prices by only 1.7% in January and does not anticipate significant increases next year. “There’s pressure on costs for us, but we don’t think in today’s environment it is appropriate to pass that all on to the consumer,” Tolivar added.
Focus on growth and talent pipeline
“Despite the challenges the consumer is facing, we have been able to significantly grow market share, and that really underscores the power of the brand and the white space opportunity ahead of us,” Tolivar said.
Cava’s revenue has grown from roughly $564 million in 2022 to $954 million in 2024. The company’s momentum comes from the strength of its brand in the fast-growing Mediterranean category, which has been ranked the top diet for eight consecutive years, she said.
Currently in 28 states with over 400 restaurants, new locations are opening with average unit volumes above $3 million, higher than the overall chain average, Tolivar said. To support growth, Cava launched its “Flavor Your Future” initiative to develop internal talent for new leadership roles. The launch of a new assistant general manager program is one of the first actions under this initiative. Current general managers and area leaders evaluate high-performing candidates in Cava’s restaurants to assess future leadership potential, Tolivar said.
“When I was in New York recently, Brett and I visited different restaurants,” Tolivar said. “When we walked into the Wall Street restaurant, our general manager said, ‘Hey, let me introduce you to my new assistant general manager; she’s a high-potential team member.’ It was inspiring to see the passion for developing leaders.”
When I asked how she maintains focus on growth amid uncertain times, Tolivar emphasized agility and a steady focus on strategy. “Staying committed to our long-term goals—while adapting when needed—will ensure lasting success for our brand and teams,” she said.
Sheryl Estrada
[email protected]
Leaderboard
David G. Anderson was promoted to VP, CFO, treasurer and assistant secretary of Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (NYSE: AP), effective January 1, 2026. Anderson will succeed Michael G. McAuley, who will assume the role of strategic advisor to the CEO until his planned retirement on June 30, 2026. Anderson will also retain his current role as president of Air and Liquid Systems Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ampco-Pittsburgh. He joined the corporation in 2010 and brings over 35 years of experience in finance and operations leadership to his new, expanded role.
Reza Taleghani was appointed EVP and CFO of Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UAA, UA), effective February 2026. He will succeed David Bergman, a 21-year Under Armour veteran, who will step down as CFO. Taleghani has more than 25 years of experience. He joins Under Armour from Samsonite Group S.A., where he has served as EVP and CFO since 2018. Before joining Samsonite, Taleghani served as President and CFO at Brightstar Corp. He spent over 15 years at J.P. Morgan, holding senior roles in investment banking, commercial banking and asset management, and served as President and CEO of Sterling Airlines A/S in Copenhagen.
Big Deal
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 in the preliminary November reading, down 3.3 points (6%) from October. The decline was led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and an 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions, according to Joanne Hsu, director of surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan.
“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,” Hsu said in a statement. “This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread across age, income, and political affiliation.”
The index is now at its lowest level since June 2022, when it reached an all-time low of 50, according to an analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Consumers are struggling to build and maintain confidence in both the future and the present. The prolonged government shutdown has intensified concerns about the economy, the data show.
“The contrast between consumer feelings and consumer spending remains the story of 2025,” according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Had consumers followed their fears, the economy would have been in recession long ago.”
Going deeper
“Dow futures rise as enough Democrats join Republicans to end the shutdown and ‘surrender’ on ACA subsidies” is a Fortune report by Jason Ma.
From the report: “U.S. stock futures were positive on Sunday evening as a bill that will end the longest-ever government shutdown advanced in the Senate. A short-term spending bill cleared a procedural hurdle after seven Democratic senators and one independent voted with Republicans. Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 66 points, or 0.14%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.68%, and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.19%.”
The bill would extend current funding through Jan. 30 and pay for SNAP and Veterans Affairs for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends next September, Ma writes. There isn’t a provision in the bill for an extension for Affordable Care Act subsidies. Instead, a promise that the Senate will vote on extending the subsidies by December. You can read more here.
Overheard
“This is an ‘AI Arms Race’ and what is fueling this next chapter of growth is Big Tech spending, and that is not slowing down into 2026.”
—Wedbush Securities analysts wrote in a Sunday industry note. The analysts also said that they believe Nvidia’s earnings next week will be a “positive catalyst for tech stocks into year-end as investors continue to underestimate the scale and scope of this transformational spending trend over the next few years.”
