Airlines flashed an early-warning signal on Tuesday, suggesting that consumers and businesses were starting to get nervous amid wider economic and political uncertainty.
Several carriers cut their financial forecasts for the first few months of the year, saying that revenue would be weaker than expected. They pointed to a number of reasons: bad weather, high-profile plane crashes, and less spending by consumers, businesses and the federal government.
“We just went through a little bit of a parade of horribles,” Ed Bastian, the chief executive of Delta Air Lines, said at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on Tuesday morning.
Delta, Southwest Airlines and American Airlines all downgraded their revenue forecasts for the first quarter compared with earlier projections. Those revised projections suggest that uncertainty and flagging economic confidence have started to take a toll on travel, which can be an early indicator for other industries.
But the news was not all bad. Airlines still expect revenue in the first quarter to be about the same as, if not higher than, the same period last year. And most are optimistic about the rest of 2025.
The softening travel spending also appeared to be limited, for now, to flights within the United States and to lower-priced fares, according to Delta and United Airlines.
“Good news is that international, long haul, Hawaii, premium, all remain really strong,” Scott Kirby, United’s chief executive, said at the investor conference. United did not revise its quarterly forecast, but Mr. Kirby said that he expected to finish the quarter at the low end of its financial projections.
Delta similarly said that premium and international travel remained strong, which was welcome news to analysts, who were surprised by the size of the cut to its forecasts. But that may not be enough to ease all investors’ concerns, according to Andrew Didora, an analyst at the Bank of America.
“Investors will worry about this spreading,” Mr. Didora said in an investor note. “The key question is whether the demand weakness is transitory.”
Weather also took a toll on the industry in the first quarter. Southwest said that the wildfires in California were worse than expected. Delta said it had been hit hard by heavy snows in January in Atlanta, where the airline is based. And American’s chief executive, Robert Isom, said at the conference on Tuesday that the airline suffered “an inordinate impact” from bad weather at hubs in Charlotte, N.C., and Dallas and Fort Worth, where it is based.
United, American and Southwest each also reported a decline in government spending on travel as the Trump administration makes deep cuts to various agencies.
Spending by the government and related businesses accounts for about 4 percent of United’s revenue, Andrew Nocella, the airline’s chief commercial officer, said at the conference. In the short term, government travel spending is still close to normal, but the airline is trying to make up for weaker bookings further out.
“Our ability to refill the seats as we head into the Easter and spring break time period is much better than in February or March, at this point,” he said. “So we feel bullish as we go forward that we’ll be able to recoup some of what’s been lost.”
Some travelers were also rattled by several high-profile crashes. In late December, a plane crashed after landing in South Korea, killing 179 people. In January, a plane operated by an American Airlines subsidiary collided with a helicopter in the Washington, D.C., area, killing 67 people. And last month, a plane operated by a Delta subsidiary flipped over after landing in Toronto; no one died.
Share prices for United, American and Delta fell in midday trading on Tuesday. Southwest and JetBlue Airways were up as investors seemed reassured by those airlines’ efforts to control costs and boost revenue.
That includes the latest major shift by Southwest, which said on Tuesday that it would start charging for checked bags. It is a risky change for the airline, which said in September that its own studies had shown that its longstanding policy of allowing two free checked bags was an important differentiator. But the airline said on Tuesday that more recent data suggested the policy might not be as important to attracting customers shopping on third-party websites.
Southwest has faced pressure from investors to control costs, notably the hedge fund Elliott Management. The airline has added red-eye flights and is working on introducing premium seats with extra legroom.
