In Wisconsin, a narrator complains that “groceries, utilities, everything’s getting more expensive and Congressman (Derrick) Van Orden is adding to the list. He voted for the costly Iran war and spiking gas prices.”
In Nebraska, Democratic candidate Chris Backemeyer says families are drowning. “And Mike Flood opened the gates. Flood voted six times for Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war, flooding us with higher prices on groceries, gas, cars and medicine, costing us a thousand dollars more a year.”
And in Iowa, a group called Vote Vets Action Fund said Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson voted five times for the Iran war, “giving us record prices for gas and fertilizer.”
Those ads are but a few examples of how Democrats and aligned advocacy groups are using an unpopular war as they challenge Republicans, aiming to win back power in the House and Senate. It’s the culmination of a strategy Democrats launched in the spring, when they began to repeatedly bring up war powers resolutions aimed at ending the conflict. The votes had little practical effect, but forced lawmakers to go on record and take a stand.
Now those votes are being highlighted in campaign ads across the country, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from AdImpact, which charts media spending.
In some cases, the Republicans targeted have never served in Congress before, so they couldn’t possibly have voted on the various war powers resolutions. Even then, Democrats are portraying them as destined to be rubber stamps for President Donald Trump when it comes to the war.
Tying the war to the cost of living
The Associated Press analyzed data on broadcast and cable ads aired from Sept. 1 through Oct. 14 in the most competitive midterm races. The analysis focused on House and Senate races rated as either tossups or leaning Democratic or Republican by the Cook Political Report. A smaller number of streaming ads were also examined.
At least half of the 50 races featured Iran-related ads, most of which included household cost-of-living messages. All told, the ads aired on TV more than 43,000 times since Sept. 1, costing an estimated $42 million. The AP used both AdImpact’s own issue designations along with additional analysis of the ads’ language to identify them.
Of the 65 unique Iran-themed ads identified by the AP, 61 of them stressed household cost-of-living messages such as rising prices for fuel and other items.
The Republican playbook
Republicans are largely ignoring the Iran war in their ads. Their best strategy is to go after Democratic weaknesses so voters say “this guy is worse,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist.
“In the end, you’re trying to get as many Republicans out to vote for you as possible and bring over some independents,” Bonjean said. “And talking about the Iran war is really not a winning message because you’re playing on the Democratic turf.”
The major themes addressed in the Republican advertising since Sept. 1 are taxes and crime, followed by issues tied to character, healthcare and immigration.
Some Republicans have sought to distance themselves from the Iran conflict outside the airwaves. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.” His opponent, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, has run ads saying that a billion dollars a day is going to a war “we have no business fighting” and he was running to “invest our tax dollars here in Michigan.”
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins emphasized in a recent debate that she voted nine times to end the conflict, prompting Democratic challenger Troy Jackson to say she voted five times to “make it happen.”
In all, the Senate has voted 14 times on resolutions seeking to halt or restrict Trump’s military action against Iran. The House has held six such votes since the conflict began in late February.
In the latest House vote, seven Republicans ended up siding with Democrats in voting to end the war. That includes four Republicans seeking reelection in highly competitive districts: Tom Barrett of Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa. Barrett and Fitzpatrick had voted previously to remove U.S. troops from hostilities, but the yes votes were the first for Miller-Meeks and Nunn, reflecting the growing weariness with the war.
Where Iran ads are most prevalent
While the Iran war ads made up about 5% of the total TV spots aired across the competitive races, some contests leaned into the topic heavily. The highest concentration was in California’s 48th Congressional District in the San Diego area.
Roughly a third of the 12,000 aired ads touch on Iran. Democrats are seizing on a remark that Republican Jim Desmond made in the early days of the war, in which he said “no pain, no gain” as part of an interview on Real America’s Voice. He also said in that interview he believed the higher prices were just “a spike” and would come down once the U.S. eliminated Iran’s nuclear capability.
“No pain, no gain?” asks an ad from Democratic candidate Marni von Wilpert. “Tell that to a family filling up their gas tank.”
Desmond and the National Republican Congressional Committee responded with an ad that doesn’t mention Iran but criticizes von Wilpert for raising taxes and fees when she was on the San Diego City Council. In contrast, the ad says Desmond fought to lower costs and supports suspending the gas tax.
Not far behind in Iran-related ads are Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, now held by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, an open seat. Roughly a quarter of the ads in those districts touch on Iran. Both are highly competitive races.
Meanwhile, some 4,000 Iran-themed ads have aired in Ohio, or about 4% of the total in one of the nation’s most expensive contests. Nearly all were from Democrat Sherrod Brown’s campaign and leaned heavily on pocketbook themes.
