Amid skepticism over the accuracy of opinion polls and betting markets to predict the presidential election, another set of data could offer some fresh insight.
Tens of thousands of Americans have already cast ballots as both parties have pushed early voting. In fact, Republicans even shattered early voting records in some states after dismissing it in previous cycles.
While the candidates the early voters picked aren’t known yet, data on who cast those ballots provides clues on the election. According to an NBC News analysis, Pennsylvania has seen a surge of new Democratic women, while Arizona has seen a surge of Republican men.
In the Keystone State, which is critical to Kamala Harris’s hopes of winning, 33,874 female Democrats who didn’t vote in 2020 cast early ballots between Oct. 1 and 28. For new male Democrats, the total is 21,292.
Those outpace the number of early-voting Republicans who sat out 2020, with women at 16,334 and men at 16,679.
To be sure, not all Democrats will pick Harris, and not all Republicans will pick Donald Trump. Plus, the number of new voters who didn’t register with either party hovers around 8,000 for both men and women, representing a potentially decisive population.
But NBC points out that the overall number of new Pennsylvania voters who cast early ballots already tops 100,000, exceeding Joe Biden’s margin of victory in that state in 2020, when he beat Trump by 80,555.
Pop superstar Taylor Swift, who grew up in Pennsylvania, could have something to do with the influx of new women voters. After she endorsed Harris in September, it sparked a nationwide rush to register to vote.
Meanwhile in Arizona, Republican men led the way among new early voters. Between Oct. 15 and 28, that demographic cast 19,901 ballots, according to NBC. For Republican women, the number was 16,515. For Democratic men and woman, the totals were 10,487 and 13,533, respectively.
But the number of new early voters who don’t belong to either party was much bigger than in Pennsylvania, creating more uncertainty over Arizona’s eventual result. Male and female Arizonans belonging to that group cast 15,899 and 14,536 ballots, respectively.
Like Pennsylvania, the total number of new early voters in Arizona—nearly 91,000—far surpasses Biden’s razor-thin 2020 margin of victory of just 10,457.
A key part of Trump’s campaign strategy is to mobilize low-propensity voters, meaning those who don’t often participate in elections. That has also translated to some concern among Republican operatives who aren’t seeing as many canvassers going door to door. By contrast, the Harris campaign has employed a more conventional ground game with offices covering battleground states and an army of paid staff and volunteers.
Polls remain tight in both states. According to 538’s average, Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania with 48% each, while Trump leads in Arizona 48.8% to 46.7%.
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