Five Ways AI Is (Or Isn’t) Influencing the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
When former President Donald Trump shared an AI-generated image of Taylor Swift in an Uncle Sam outfit endorsing his campaign, it spotlighted a growing concern in the 2024 presidential race: artificial intelligence’s role in spreading misinformation. The incident demonstrated how easily synthetic media enters mainstream political discourse, misleading voters and influencing public perception.
The image was AI-generated and fake; Swift did not endorse Trump. In fact, she publicly announced her support for Vice President Kamala Harris shortly after the only Harris-Trump debate, showing just how quickly misinformation can take root.
As the election unfolds, AI reshapes the political landscape in unprecedented ways. But is AI the October Surprise that wasn’t? Recent research from the Alan Turing Institute suggests that while AI-related interference exists, it has not yet meaningfully impacted election results in countries like the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
From deepfakes to microtargeting, here are five significant ways AI is impacting—or perhaps not significantly affecting—the U.S. election.
1. Microtargeted Campaigning: AI In Political Messaging
Campaign strategists are increasingly turning to AI to analyze voter data and tailor messaging, pushing beyond traditional demographic targeting to more personalized approaches. Yet, how effective is this method? A June 2023 MIT study challenges assumptions about microtargeting’s superiority. “Our research found no evidence that complex microtargeting works better than simple demographic targeting,” says David Rand, MIT professor of management science and co-author of the study. “Single-attribute targeting proved just as effective as more sophisticated approaches.”
Nevertheless, both the Trump and Harris campaigns are leveraging AI to fine-tune their messages. This allows for rapid, data-driven adjustments aimed at engaging voters on a more personal level. While the practice of targeting political ads isn’t new, AI has evolved the process, enabling campaigns to analyze data and deliver messages with greater speed and precision.
But these advancements also bring significant concerns. Privacy issues loom large as personal data is increasingly mined for political purposes, raising questions about consent and data protection. Additionally, the potential for creating echo chambers has sparked worry about increased polarization, as tailored messages may reinforce biases, isolating voters within ideological silos.
2. The Rise Of Deepfakes And Misinformation
Recent incidents demonstrate AI’s potential for electoral disruption. In January 2024, the Federal Communications Commission banned AI-generated robocalls after New Hampshire voters received fake recordings of President Biden’s voice discouraging primary participation. The New Hampshire Department of Justice, with the support of the U.S. Department of Justice, filed charges against the political consultant responsible.
3. The AI-Powered Message Machine
Political campaigns are quietly deploying artificial intelligence to craft and test campaign messages at unprecedented speed. Yet the most visible AI-generated content has veered toward the absurd, rather than the deceptive. Images of Trump riding cats while wielding assault rifles or Harris in communist attire have become common political memes, particularly on conservative social media.
While these images may seem harmless or even humorous, experts warn they can serve as powerful vehicles for spreading misinformation. The Harris campaign has mostly refrained from amplifying AI-generated content, while Trump and his supporters have embraced the technology’s potential for viral messaging—sometimes successfully.
4. Is AI’s Impact Overblown?
Despite predictions that AI could undermine democracy, its actual impact may be less dramatic than feared. Early warnings of a “tech-enabled Armageddon” appear exaggerated when examined alongside recent elections.
Attempts to influence elections with AI have occurred, but they haven’t yet significantly swayed outcomes. The Turing Institute analyzed over 100 national elections since 2023 and found cases of AI-related interference, but no meaningful impact on election results. Their research identified instances of AI-enabled misinformation and deepfakes, yet these did not alter the expected performance of political candidates based on polling data.
These findings suggest that, while AI-enabled disinformation is real, its influence remains limited. This prompts a reevaluation of the most extreme predictions about AI, suggesting that earlier speculations may have overlooked decades of research on the nuanced factors shaping voting behavior and the limited power of mass persuasion.
5. Same Old Foreign Influence, Fancier New Tools
Foreign actors have integrated AI into existing influence operations. In September 2024, Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center reported that Russian-linked operators deployed fabricated videos aimed at sowing discord and spreading disinformation about Vice President Harris. While most gained limited traction, several misleading clips reached millions of viewers within hours, according to Microsoft’s analytics. Russia also uses “troll farms” to deepen social divisions, employing entities that conduct disinformation and propaganda activities online
The Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which supports election security resources for public, state and federal election officials, confirmed that foreign actors are now using AI tools to bolster these traditional influence operations
Looking Ahead
The 2024 election cycle demonstrates both AI’s potential and limitations in political campaigns. While the technology has enhanced existing campaign tactics, its impact appears more evolutionary than revolutionary. In the age of AI, traditional democratic safeguards—voter education, transparent election administration and robust fact-checking—remain crucial.
Legal frameworks are beginning to adapt and address new challenges. In addition to CISA, the Justice Department’s Election Threats Task Force reported in March 2024 that it has expanded its focus to include AI-generated election interference, working with state authorities to enforce existing fraud and defamation laws in digital contexts.
With reports indicating that former President Trump and his allies may prepare to contest election results if he loses, AI’s impact on election integrity takes on added significance.
So while AI-driven tools introduce both challenges and opportunities for campaigns, preserving democratic integrity rests on the resilience of traditional processes. Institutions continue to focus on strengthening voter education, transparent administration and fact-checking to counter misinformation and uphold public trust.
As this election cycle unfolds, whether AI will disrupt or enhance core democratic safeguards remains to be seen. Reflecting on the potential of computer science and AI, Alan Turing—a pioneering mind featured on the British £50 note—remarked to The Times newspaper in 1949: “This is only a foretaste of what is to come and only the shadow of what is going to be.”
More than seventy years later, his words resonate strongly, as the full impact of AI on democracy still lies ahead, both promising and uncertain.
