Record-breaking fuel prices triggered by the Iran war and global refinery outages have dominated the discourse leading up to the November midterm elections, but skyrocketing utility bill and the data center boom are squarely on the ballot too—and could tip the balance of power in many states and in Congress.
Prior to the beginning of the Iran war, electricity and natural gas utility bills led the nation in inflation and helped trigger the AI and data center backlash, even though data centers are only partly responsible for rising utility bills in some parts of the country. But the uproar hasn’t dissipated—despite fuel prices winning more headlines of late—and many positions from public utility commissioners to U.S. senators to governors hang in the balance, said Charles Hua, executive director of the PowerLines nonprofit, which seeks to modernize the utility regulatory system.
“This is no longer a boring, sleepy energy story,” Hua said. “I cannot think of another election cycle prior to this 2026 midterm cycle where electricity and utility bills were on the ballot.
“Energy has always been an issue that’s animated voters, but primarily on the oil and gas and fuel cost side in terms of what people pay at the pump. What is new and distinctive about this moment is the way in which electricity is now an issue and the way in which utility bills are one of the predominant sources of frustration for energy consumers across the country,” he added.
Over the last five years, U.S. electricity prices have risen by roughly 40% on average. Through the first three quarters of 2026, utilities have requested another $23.1 billion in rate increases, on track to match the record-smashing high of nearly $31 billion in 2025. The record set last year was nearly double the previous high.
And utility rate hikes are typically associated with increased spending. Investor-owned utility companies increased their capital expenditure plans by more than 27% to at least $1.4 trillion through 2030, up from $1.1 trillion a year ago, and that’s not even counting privately held companies, according to PowerLines.
While most of the rate hikes from previous years are attributed to an aging grid in need of upgrades, increasingly extreme weather events, and volatile fuel prices, much of the future spending is also for new power generation, in part to power the AI data center boom.
Data center developers can build their own power behind the meter or cover the costs to help reduce the impacts on ratepayers, but it varies by project and region. Some states have data center moratoriums while others have rejected or reduced rate hikes. The White House pushed for a non-binding “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” with hyperscalers to keep costs down on consumers.
“Data centers are putting significant pressure on the grid and whether or not, in any given electricity market or state, data centers are actually driving up electricity rates is a very nuanced conversation,” Hua said. “Regardless of the reality, there certainly is a perception in most, if not all states at this point, that data centers could be driving up utility bills.”
All forms of energy rising
Retail gasoline and diesel prices have spiked to new highs this year, but they’re not expected to go up substantially higher from now. The same may not prove true of utility costs where many rate hikes remain pending and a tough winter could cause further spikes.
The latest consumer price index showed heating oil in September was up 74% from a year ago, nearly double the jump in gasoline, just as residents start filling their tanks for winter.
“This winter’s spike in heating oil prices is going to hit families hard as heating season starts now,” said Jamie Van Nostrand, policy director of the Future of Heat Initiative, which advocates for heat pumps. “A typical oil-heated home burns 500 to 700 gallons a year. At today’s prices, that’s $3,000 to $4,000, or 50% to 75% more than this time last year, landing on households already stretched by higher costs everywhere else.”
In terms of motor fuel, as of Friday, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $4.33, up 42% from 12 months prior. This is the first time gasoline has ever exceeded $4 a gallon in October. Likewise, the average diesel cost was $6.33 a gallon, up 73% in a year. Diesel had never exceeded $6 a gallon on average until this year.
Fuel and utility costs are being compounded by many consumers, Hua said. “People do notice when their gasoline prices are high. There’s just a general feeling of malaise and frustration that bills are going up, that they can’t afford it, and part of what’s new is just the degree to which energy costs are now the greatest in magnitude drivers upwards of prices.”
There is little people can do to combat fuel prices, but they can push back against utility rates, especially with their elected officials, including their public utility commissions that typically approve rates hike requests. Nearly half of the $4.5 billion in rate hike requests from the third quarter were in southern U.S. states, according to PowerLines. But the single-biggest quarterly rate request came from Jersey Central Power & Light, which asked regulators for a $700 million increase.
Many states and commissions are looking harder at ways to better utilize existing grid resources—a lot of generated power is never used—such as incorporating more utility-scale batteries and virtual power plants (automatically reducing power usage at times of peak demand, including from data centers). These are essentially ways of turning a dumb grid smart.
“Electricity politics are ratcheting up in terms of the pressure point. What was once a boring, sleepy issue where the PUC made decisions more or less in a vacuum is no longer the case. This is now a political issue,” Hua said.
