President Trump on Saturday signed executive orders imposing sweeping tariffs on the country’s three largest trading partners, a move that risks unleashing a damaging trade war.
Trade wars were a feature of Mr. Trump’s first term in the White House, too. But his latest tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, which are set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, may broaden the scale of disruptions. The three countries account for more than a third of the products brought into the United States, supporting tens of millions of American jobs.
Here’s what to know about the anticipated fallout from the tariffs:
How sweeping are the tariffs?
All goods imported from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which will face a 10 percent tariff, according to the executive orders. The orders also placed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods.
The auto and electric equipment sectors in Mexico are most exposed to disruption from sweeping tariffs, as is mineral processing in Canada, according to economists at S&P Global. In the United States, the largest risks are to farming, fishing, metal and auto production.
What should consumers expect?
Some companies may try to pass the cost on to their customers by raising prices. Others may opt to eat the cost of the tariff. Companies may also try to force foreign suppliers to bear the burden by negotiating lower prices for their products.
When Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on China during his first term, economic studies found that most of those costs were passed on to American consumers — a scenario that is likely to play out once again. That could mean higher prices in grocery aisles, at car dealerships and at the pump.
Roughly 60 percent of the oil that the United States imports comes from Canada. Tariffs on Canadian energy, though lower than for other imports, could prompt an uptick in prices at the pump, especially in the Midwest, where refineries turn Canadian oil into gasoline and diesel.
There’s also concern about inflationary pressures across the board. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said that if Mr. Trump proceeds with across-the-board tariffs, it would both raise prices in the United States and slow economic growth. Most economists expect that fresh trade barriers could lead to a temporary burst of higher inflation.
How long might it take for prices to rise?
Consumers could see a swift uptick in prices for nondurable goods, including groceries. Most of the avocados in the United States are imported from Mexico, and they could become more expensive within a couple of weeks of the tariffs going into effect. Prices for cucumbers and tomatoes might spike, too. It could take longer for prices to rise for durable goods, like cars, thanks to existing inventory, or if companies expect the tariffs to be temporary.
“It could take a little while, but if these tariffs are there to stay, then these price increases are going to come eventually,” said Felix Tintelnot, an associate professor of economics at Duke University.
How quickly firms are willing and able to raise their prices remains to be seen, Peter Simon, an economics professor at Northeastern University, said Saturday. While some price increases may represent a legitimate response to rising costs for businesses, there is also the risk of opportunistic pricing, meaning companies may use tariffs as an excuse to raise prices even more than necessary, Mr. Simon said. An uptick in inflation, he said, is an “unavoidable result” of the tariffs.
How has Mr. Trump explained his tariffs?
After taking office, Mr. Trump said he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico because the neighboring countries were allowing “mass numbers of people to come in and fentanyl to come in.” His arguments since Inauguration Day — that punishments are necessary to halt the flow of migrants and drugs into the United States — follow months of similar threats during his presidential campaign.
Mr. Trump issued the executive orders under a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, expanding the scope of a national emergency that he declared on his first day in office with respect to an “influx of illegal aliens and illicit drugs.”
Canada and Mexico have already signaled possible retaliation. The Canadian government has made plans to target orange juice from Florida, whiskey from Tennessee and peanut butter from Kentucky, while Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has said her country is prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs.
“If the United States moves ahead, Canada’s ready with a forceful and immediate response,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said Friday on social media.
Mr. Trump’s executive orders, however, aim to restrict the affected governments’ ability to fight back. The United States might ramp up its tariffs if the countries retaliate by imposing their own import duties or taking other measures, according to a clause in the orders.
Have U.S. companies been preparing?
Ahead of Mr. Trump’s announcement on Saturday, U.S. companies did not appear to be in a big rush to bring in shipments from Mexico and Canada, though there were signs of an uptick. Efforts to bring in goods before the tariffs probably contributed to an increase in the transportation of shipping containers across North America by rail in the first four weeks of the year, compared with the same period in 2024.
Data released in the weeks before Mr. Trump’s executive orders on Saturday showed modestly higher freight volumes on road and rail. Transportation experts said that for rail and trucking companies, the situation differed from 2021 and 2022, when a deluge of imports overwhelmed supply chains, causing shipping costs to skyrocket and helping fuel a rapid acceleration of inflation.
