Land area devoted to pistachio growing
Twenty years ago, California farmers bet big on the pistachio. The little green nut was considered niche in the United States, but it was a staple in Iran and the surrounding region.
That gamble has paid off. Demand for pistachios is high as wellness trends draw people to high-fiber, protein-rich foods. They are also a key ingredient of Dubai chocolate, the incredibly popular chocolate bar filled with pistachio cream and kataifi, or shredded phyllo.
Pistachio orchards cover more than 600,000 acres in California, up from 100,000 in 2001. The San Joaquin Valley of California has near-perfect conditions for pistachios, a mix of hot, dry summers and cold, wet winters. The United States is now the world’s largest producer and exporter of pistachios. Iran is second.
Yet more than a month into the war with Iran, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at historically low levels, which has stymied exports from the region.
The potential removal of a major player in the market is good news for farmers in California, who are likely to get higher prices for their pistachios.
“With this war, it’s going to limit what Iran is able to do, able to ship, to customers in Europe and China,” said Adam Orandi, who farms 1,600 acres of pistachio orchards in the San Joaquin Valley. His father imported saplings from Iran in the 1970s.
For hundreds of years, Iran dominated the market. Pistachios first found their way to California in the 1930s when an American botanist, William E. Whitehouse, brought the nuts back from Iran. Yet only one variety flourished, which was named the “Kerman.”
Pistachio orchards expanded in the 1970s in California, but Iran continued to control the global market until the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979, when students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took dozens of Americans hostage.
Various trade embargoes against Iran were imposed and lifted in the following years, but a 241 percent tariff that was put in place in 1986 essentially ended Iran’s reign in the pistachio market in the United States.
Since 2011, the United States has consistently surpassed Iran as the largest exporter of pistachios. Iran has continued to lose market share.
The U.S. leads Iran in pistachio exports
“Production in Iran has been very erratic,” said David Magaña, who analyzes the fresh produce and tree nut industry at Rabobank. “Fifteen years ago, Iran accounted for 40 to 50 percent of global pistachio exports. More recently, Iran’s share has been more like 20 percent.”
The wholesale price of in-shell pistachios — what large manufacturers or retailers pay — has climbed 20 percent in the last 18 months to $4.57 a pound, according to Expana, a market data provider for the agriculture and food industries. In stores, consumers are paying significantly more.
The market is divided into two products: in-shell pistachios, which are sold whole and often roasted, and pistachio “kernels,” the seeds that are used in food production. The explosion of interest in pistachios as an ingredient in desserts and other foods has sharply increased demand for the kernels.
“For years, pistachios were a one-trick pony. They were a salty snack,” Mr. Orandi said. Just a few years ago, he added, he “couldn’t give the kernels away.”
In recent years, California growers have devoted more acreage to pistachios, and the state produced a record 1.6 billion pounds last year. American Pistachio Growers, a trade association, projected that California trees will bear more than two billion pounds of pistachios by 2031.
Pistachio imports have shot up worldwide
But there is one thing standing between the farmers and those projections: California’s water regulations, which people in the industry said may restrict the ability of some orchards to expand.
Pistachios, like other tree nuts, require large amounts of water. The amount needed by an acre of pistachio trees for an optimal crop yield depends on a number of factors, including soil salinity and the age of the trees.
On average, one acre of pistachios consumes over one million gallons of water in a year — slightly less than almonds and walnuts, according to estimates from University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. For areas in California prone to droughts, the pistachio boom could add stress to the state’s already thin water resources.
The vast majority of pistachios in California — in addition to other nuts and crops — grow in areas classified as of “extremely high” water stress as defined by the World Resources Institute, an environmental research firm. Compared to two decades ago, the amount of water used annually for pistachios in these areas is now tens of billions more gallons than before.
Difference in water use in pistachio-growing regions between 2007 and 2025
Still, there may be benefits to pistachios emerging as a major nut crop of the state, according to Josué Medellín-Azuara, a water resources researcher and professor of environmental engineering at University of California, Merced. They are more tolerant to drought and water salinity compared to walnuts and almonds, and they are consistently a high value crop, he said.
The profitability of these water-intensive crops creates a paradox for the farmers planting them, said Rich Pauloo, a hydrologist. “They consume more water, but you get more money per drop of water.”
