My head almost exploded when I received a text from a friend Saturday morning. He shared that some people were saying Hurricane Melissa was caused by HAARP or other government technology. After a quick social media search, sadly I did see references to such foolishness. Thankfully, my algorithms must track different parts of the social media landscape because I had missed all of the commotion. Unfortunately, after high-impact hurricanes, HAARP conspiracy theorists always crawl out of social media holes, cracks and crevices. Hurricane Melissa was not caused by HAARP.
What Is HAARP?
The problem with the HAARP conspiracy theory is that it conflates something real with false narratives. In May, I wrote an article debunking 6 top conspiracy theories about weather. That discussion was motivated by wacky things being said about causation of Texas Hill Country floods. About HAARP, I wrote, “Relatively speaking, the HAARP conspiracy theory might be feeling a little neglected these days. It’s one that has been around for a while, but it has been in the shadows lately compared to the new batch out there.”
I went on to say, “Like many of these conspiracy theories, HAARP is rooted in real science but has been distorted, conflated, and misrepresented.” University of Alaska’s website is a good place to learn about HAARP. It stated, “The High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program, or HAARP, is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere.” HAARP exists but has nothing to do with weather manipulation. It’s stunning that my fingers even had to type those words, but it is 2025 fringe theories are increasingly discussed in mainstream outlets. The U.S. Air Force handed HAARP off to the university ten years ago. By the way, if you saw the northern lights recently, they are associated with the ionosphere.
Why Some People Cling To Conspiracy Theories
Meteorologists like me knew Hurricane Melissa was going to be a problem for Jamaica. In fact, this week I wrote an artcle describing a record 252 miles per hour wind gust measured by one of the instruments dropped from the Hurricane Hunters. Melissa was possibly the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic basin, and frankly, one of the strongest tropical cyclones we’ve ever witnessed anywhere on Earth. It fundamentally changed the island of Jamaica and other parts of the Caribbean region. Sadly, we knew it would.
However, here’s the grim reality. Hurricane Melissa was fueled by extremely warm ocean heat content. Sea surface temperatures were quite warm in the central Caribbean Sea for October, and atmospheric conditions were otherwise favorable for explosive intensification. That’s not ionospheric research folks. That’s meteorology, marine sciences and likely climate warming of ocean waters. If you want a human contribution, that’s far more credible than HAARP.
Time and time again, I have written about why people cling to conspiracy theories rather than reality or actual facts. Remember, there is a percentage of people that believe the Earth is flat, but I digress. After scouring scholarly studies and using my own common sense, here are six reasons people cling to stuff like “HAARP caused Hurricane Melissa” narratives:
- The need for control and a villain. Hurricane Gilbert was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall in Jamaica. Hurricane Melissa was a category 5 storm that was nothing like anything the islanders have seen. When people feel that an event is outside their level of control or experience level, conspiracy theories offer a sort of coping mechanism and someone to blame.
- Simple explanations for complex challenges. We see this often with weather events, space exploration, and medical issues. People try to simplify complex topics by bringing them down to their level of comprehension. Conspiracy theories provide a pathway for doing so. I suppose for some people, “a big, bad government machine” is more understandable than ocean heat content, dynamic response to latent heat exchanges, or vertical wind shear.
- False equivalency. Some people give equal consideration or weight to things they see on the Internet or social media. I see this often with vaccine or climate change discussions. Because of broader accessibility, the lines have been blurred between sound information and “wacky-doodle land.” That’s why you see so many social media-rologists posting fake storms or people with no expertise on complex topics claiming they “did their own research.” False equivalency is the process by which people apply equal weight to counter arguments though a clear consensus on the other side exists. For example, 97 engineers might say don’t drive across a structurally-weak bridge. However, false equivalency is reading the blog by 3 engineers saying it is fine to do so and then proclaiming it’s not settled. Will you drive across it? That’s the reality many of us face with climate change narratives too.
- Dunning-Kruger Effect. People often overestimate what they know about things or underestimate what they do not know. Further, lack of or failure to apply critical thinking skills can amplify such tendencies and lead to conspiracy theories spreading like wildfire.
- Healthy skepticism and past history. Candidly, some people are skeptical of things because they remember past history like Tuskegee Syphilis Experiments. While we certainly must acknowledge and be alert to such infamy, common sense and science understanding filters are needed.
- AI and fake graphics. Throughout my timeline, I have friends who cannot discern whether images or videos are fake. Every time a hurricane makes landfall, people share fake images of sharks on interstate highways or supercell-tornado clouds from the Midwest. With Melissa, there were so many fake pictures of the actual hurricane or its aftermath getting around. Such pictures can add fuel to some of the conspiracy theories out there. My colleague Bob Henson wrote about how such fakery made Hurricane Melissa worse.
