Beef prices have been giving Americans sticker shock at grocery stores lately, and they are poised to reach even more stomach-churning levels next year, according to Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe.
In an interview Friday on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria, he pointed out that the U.S. cattle herd is at 70-year lows while beef demand is at all-time highs.
To rebuild herds, ranchers must hold on to heifers rather than sending them out to meat processors. There are signs of that happening, but that also means beef supply will shrink in the near term, Rempe warned.
“So we are headed for what I’m calling the $10-a-pound reality by third quarter of ’26,” he predicted. “Families are going to see $10-a-pound ground beef in the grocery store.”
According to the latest consumer price index data, the average price of ground beef was $6.323 a pound in September. That’s up 14% since January and 26% from January 2024.
If ground beef hits $10 a pound, the price would represent a 58% surge from September’s level.
St. Louis Fed
Anger about worsening affordability delivered stunning losses to Republicans during off-year elections this month.
On Friday, Trump announced that he’s scrapping tariffs on beef, coffee, and a range of other commodities. But non-tariff factors are driving beef’s price spike.
Droughts, high interest rates, and expensive feed have combined to shrink the U.S. cattle herd sharply. At the same time, demand for protein is also soaring and is even showing up in Starbucks lattes.
Wesley Batista, who shares control of the $15 billion meat-packing behemoth JBS, said last month the U.S. needs to import more product from abroad to meet its insatiable demand.
That includes supply from Brazil and Argentina. While Trump eased tariffs on Argentine beef, Rempe pointed out the country accounts for just 2% of U.S. beef supply, meaning the solution to higher prices will depend on domestic producers.
But Trump has also targeted meat producers, accusing them of “driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation.”
“I am asking the DOJ to act expeditiously,” Trump posted last week on social media. “Action must be taken immediately to protect Consumers, combat Illegal Monopolies, and ensure these Corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American People.”
Meanwhile, Rempe vowed not to raise prices on Omaha Steaks’ primary gift packages, saying the company can leverage inventory stockpiles, vertical integration, and technology like AI, automation and robotics.
He also suggested consumers buy ground beef that’s 80% meat and 20% fat because it represents a better cost per ounce from a yield perspective.
Still, if shoppers see ground beef at the market with price tags that read $10.00 per pound, it will cross a major psychological threshold.
“It’s going to be tough on families,” Rempe said. “I mean that’s going to be quite a shock when that price point hits the four digits. It really feels like it has increased dramatically.”
