Investors worry about Fed independence as stocks rise in China and Japan

The S&P 500 closed down 0.64% on Monday and S&P futures were down 0.69% pre-opening in New York. A monthly survey of China’s services sector fell to its lowest level ever, excluding the COVID pandemic, suggesting President Donald Trump’s trade war is hitting the world’s second-biggest economy, but shares on the SSE Composite rose 1.1%. Investors seem to be waiting nervously before the Fed’s Wednesday rate decision—and Trump’s reaction.

Markets in Asia and Europe largely rose this morning while S&P futures dropped about 0.7%, setting the broad U.S. index up for a second day of losses after a nine-day winning streak as investors nervously await the Fed’s Wednesday interest rate decision—and President Donald Trump’s reaction.

Wall Street is almost certain that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in the 4.25-4.50% range, but analysts expect that Trump will ratchet up his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering rates.

“The attacks on Powell are going to escalate a lot,” Jeremy Siegel, emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said during a CNBC interview Monday. “Trump, I think, is going to step up the escalation.”

Any such escalation could frighten off skittish investors, notes EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco.

“We caution that even the perception of political influence over monetary policy could unsettle markets,” he wrote in a note. “A sustained loss of confidence in the Fed’s autonomy risks de-anchoring inflation expectations, lifting long-term yields, raising debt servicing costs, and undermining demand for dollar assets.”

The fact that markets may be starting to factor heightened uncertainty around the future of Fed leadership can be seen in the recent rise in U.S. asset risk premia, Daco wrote.

Despite Fed leadership worries, investors can take solace in the resilience of the world economy—so far. “The data are sending a straightforward message that global growth remains solid,” write Bruce Kasman and his team at JPMorgan Chase. “Despite a noisy stall in the US, global GDP grew at a trendlike 2.4%ar in 1Q25. Available April readings show sustained momentum as we turn into the current quarter.”

Here’s a snapshot of today’s action:

The S&P 500 declined 0.64% yesterday following nine straight days of gains.
President Trump’s announcement of a 100% tax on American movie production in foreign countries sent Netflix down 2%, Paramount down 1.6%, and Disney down 0.4%.
S&P futures pointed to more gloom today: Contracts were priced down 0.8% in premarket trading.
The VIX fear index is up 9% today.
But Asian markets rose this morning: China’s SSE Composite was up 1.1% (and is up 1.64% YTD). Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.7% in early trading.