Kia of Korea is raising its electric vehicle game in Europe, just in time to meet a full-frontal sales campaign on the market by China.
Investment bank UBS last year declared that Chinese EVs had a near 30% cost advantage over counterparts in the European market. That also included sedans and SUVs from Korea’s Kia/Hyundai, and Japanese exporters too. The Kia/Hyundai combination sells just over 1 million combustion and EV vehicles a year in Europe for a market share of just over 8%, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Toyota and Lexus are close to 8% too. Sales from Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, Mazda and Subaru are more like rounding errors.
Kia has said it plans to sell 1.15 million EVs globally by 2027, with 455,000 in Europe. Last year it sold about 67,200 in Europe, down 14%, so there’s a way to go.
Kia, which not that long ago sold its vehicles in Europe to buyers tempted just by low prices and long guarantees, has moved to another level. Kia in Europe now competes with the top-of-the-line mass market products from the likes of Volkswagen and Stellantis’s Peugeot but has ambitions to close in on the upmarket Germans like BMW, Mercedes and Audi.
Already on the market is the big Kia EV9 SUV, which sells for around £75,000 ($95,000) after tax and competes with such flagship products as the Tesla Model X, Mercedes EQS, Audi Q8, BMW iX, and Volvo EX90. The EV6 SUV is about £25,000 ($31,700) cheaper and has to win sales against the Tesla Model Y, Volvo Mercedes EQA, and Ford Mustang Mach E.
The newest and smallest new Kia EV is the “3”, an SUV about £15,000 ($19,000) cheaper and its rivals include the Renault Megane e-tech, the Volkswagen ID.4, the BYD Atto3, MG4 and Smart#1. The latter three are early Chinese arrivals in Europe so it’s hard to imagine a tougher marketing environment. Unlike Kia, Chinese manufacturers are not approaching Europe in a modest, incremental way, but with all guns blazing, offering vehicles that compete directly across a broad front including Porsche and Mercedes. Even Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari and Rolls Royce must be starting to look nervously over their shoulders.
Kia has just introduced the EV4 sedan, which will rival the VW ID.3 and BYD Dolphin. It is expected to introduce the little EV2 next year, to be built at its Slovakian factory. VW’s counterpart, the ID.2, will appear in the following year.
Kia’s latest EV, the “3”, like its bigger and more expensive siblings, has attention-grabbing looks and a high-quality interior. Like most modern sedans and SUVs the driveability and design are so impressive it’s hard to find grounds for criticism. But EVs still have Achilles Heels, and the EV3 is no exception. Kia claims the battery will offer 361 miles of range but it only charged to an average capacity of 271.5 miles. Fast but legal cruising down the autoroute was also unimpressive, slashing range by over 60%.
Here there is some good news for Europeans, Japanese and Koreans. The new EVs from China, like the ORA Funky Cat, MGs, Polestars and BYDs, are even worse autoroute performers.
The European market for EVs is entering a critical stage. EV market share is now just over 20%, must reach about 28% this year, and 80% by 2030 if the European Union’s CO2 mandate is to be met. It’s hard to see how there will be enough affordable products, according to most projections.
EV Volumes’ forecasts a 61.6% EV market share in 2030. Investment researcher Jefferies cut more than two million sales from its 2030 forecast late last year. Its forecast now stands at 4.7 million for a market share of 35%. Professor Stefan Bratzel, director of Germany’s Center of Automotive Management, expects up to 50% in 2030.
French auto consultancy Inovev has cut its forecast to 40% for 2030. Many forecasters see a big increase in EV sales in 2025 as EU CO2 rules tighten.
“A big increase is a little too optimistic for us. We forecast an increase in 2025 and 2026 thanks to the launch of smaller more affordable EVs like the Renault 5 and 4, Citroën e-C3, and Hyundai Inster, but it will not be a big increase, even if some carmakers may push harder the sales of EVs this year to fit in the 2025 C02 regulation,” Jamel Taganza, vice-president of Inovev, said in an email exchange.
Taganza said there are too many limitations blocking mass EV sales. There aren’t enough affordable ones and the charging infrastructure is weak. The EU will have to dilute its strict CO2 mandate, which outlaws new combustion sales completely by 2035.
“We think the EU’s 2035 target will not be kept as it is today. It will be adapted to the reality of the market,” Taganza said.
How will the likes of Kia withstand the new threat from China?
“The main market differentiation of Korean carmakers until recently were to market interesting products at a competitive price vs Europeans backed up by 5-7 years guarantees. Chinese carmakers will go even further on the prices with the same level of guarantees and even attracting customers by financial packages and facilities,” Taganza said.
Taganza said China will certainly reach a respectable level by 2030, but this is no knockout blow. Chinese brands will reach a 7% share by 2030 of the whole European market, compared with 9% for the Koreans and the same for the Japanese. Europe will retain 67% of the market. Inovev said the overall European market will reach 15.2 million by 2030, not much higher than the 2025 forecast.
JATO Dynamics said Chinese combustion and EV vehicle sales in Europe rose 52% in January compared with the same period of 2024 to 37,100, for a market share of 3.7% (2.4%).
Kia EV3 GT-Line S
Electric motor – 198 hp
Torque – 283 Nm @ 5,000 rpm
Transmission – one-speed automatic
Battery – 81.4 kWh Lithium ion
Acceleration – 0-60 mph 7.7 seconds
Top speed – 105 mph
Price – £43,895 after tax ($55,655)
