Whether it’s a road trip to a nearby lake or jumping on a plane to explore a big city, Americans are expected to get away in record numbers over the long Memorial Day weekend even as economic and technical worries rattle the U.S. travel industry.
Over 45 million people — 1.4 million more than last year — will venture at least 50 miles from their homes between Thursday and next Monday, with the vast majority going by car, auto club organization AAA predicts. The holiday’s previous domestic travel record was set 20 years ago.
AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said the analysts who prepared the forecast weren’t sure when they started their research if concerns about the economy would cause fewer U.S. residents to plan getaways for the unofficial start of summer, but it doesn’t seem to be the case.
“People are still feeling pretty good about travel,” Diaz said, adding that some households and individuals may just opt to spend less money on their trips.
Hitting the (hopefully) open road
Like last year, about 87% of travelers are driving to their Memorial Day destinations, AAA said. About 39 million people, or 1 million more than last year, are expected to take road trips, which Diaz noted many families find easier and cheaper than flying.
“You leave whenever you want,” she said. “You can pack as much as you want in the car, make stops along the way.”
AAA’s fuel tracker shows motorists can expect to pay less for gasoline this year; the U.S. average price on Sunday was $3.18 for a gallon of regular gas compared to $3.60 a year ago. Renting a vehicle and staying in a hotel also may cost less, according to the most recent Consumer Price Index.
Transportation-data firm INRIX anticipates the worst holiday traffic will be in the afternoons and evenings. It said drivers hitting the road on Thursday should leave before 12 p.m., and those planning Friday departures should leave before 11 a.m.
On Memorial Day itself, the firm predicts the most congested time on roads will be 4 p.m.-7 p.m.
What’s up with air travel?
In 2024, the Friday before Memorial Day was among the record-setting days for the number of airline passengers screened at U.S. airports. While airports should be busy again this Friday, the outlook for air travel this year is unclear.
Air safety has been on the minds of travelers after the deadly midair collision in January of a passenger jet and a U.S. Army helicopter above Washington, D.C. In recent weeks, flight delays and cancellations stemming from an air traffic controller shortage and equipment failures at a facility that directs in and out of the Newark, New Jersey, airport have also made some people wonder whether to get on a plane.
Most major U.S. airlines said they planned to reduce their scheduled domestic flights this summer, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. Bank of America reported this month that its credit card customers were spending less on flights and lodging.
But an analysis by aviation data provider Cirium of Memorial Day weekend tickets bought through online travel sites found an increase of about 3% across two dozen U.S. airports compared to last year. Bookings were down 10% for flights at Washington Dulles International Airport and down 9% for flights at Newark Liberty International Airport, according to Cirium’s data.
AAA said the weekend isn’t expected to set a passenger volume record, but the organization estimates that 3.6 million residents are set to fly over the holiday, nearly 2% more than last year. Airfares cost an average of 7.9% less last month than they did a year earlier, according to government price data.
The U.S. travel and tourism industry will watching during the weekend and the weeks ahead to see what might be in store for the summer travel season. Tourism industry experts have warned that anger about the Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric, and concern about tourist detentions at the U.S. border, have made citizens of some other countries less interested in traveling to the U.S.
The national statistics agency of Canada reported last week that the number of residents making return trips by air from the U.S. fell 20% in April compared to the same month a year earlier, while return trips by car were down 35%.
From big city lights to starry nights
Across Texas, reservations for day passes and camping spots were filling up at state parks for the weekend, said Tara Humphreys, director of interpretation with Texas State Parks. Stargazing parties were among events planned at parks across the state.
Bolstered by its theme parks and nearby cruise ports, Orlando, Florida, tops AAA’s list of most popular domestic destinations for the weekend. The grand opening of the city’s newest theme park, Universal’s Epic Universe, is scheduled for Thursday.
“A lot of schools are out those days prior to Memorial Day weekend and so it’s just another opportunity for them to enjoy the destination,” Visit Orlando President and CEO Casandra Matej said.
Long weekends are a good time to hop on a short flight to a big city, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at the travel site Hopper. She said top searches for the weekend on the site included New York, Miami and Las Vegas.
“Typically, we see over three-day weekends travelers look for destinations that are a quick flight away, so maybe like a couple hour flight at most,” she said.
Seattle is another top destination, according to AAA booking data, with Memorial Day weekend kicking off the peak Alaska cruise season. Michael Woody, Visit Seattle’s senior vice president and chief strategy officer, said that visitors can take in what the city has to offer and also fit in some time in nature.
AAA is also projecting about 2 million people will travel by train, bus or cruise ship over the weekend, an 8.5% increase over last year.
Weather conditions may factor into travel plans and holiday celebrations in some areas. Nick Novella, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, said parts of the Western U.S. were expected to see soaring temperatures over the holiday weekend, while there’s a possibility of heavy rain in parts of the East Coast.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
