This should have been a huge milestone for Microsoft, one years in the making. But instead it’s overshadowed by a critical new decision for 400 million of its users, the exact same number that seemed to ditch Windows in another surprising twist.
Windows 11 has finally caught Windows 10’s market share after years of frustration. Data to the end of June, courtesy of Statcounter, shows the two neck and neck — with less than a percentage point between them. Given this data is not exact, that’s within any statistical margin of error. We can say the milestone has been reached.
At least for now. Microsoft’s decision to let all Windows 10 users stick with the older OS for another year, even if their PC can be upgraded seems a mistake. That u-turn on Microsoft’s part made absolute sense when it comes to those with older, ineligible PCs. But given the acceleration in recent upgrades, it seems the wrong time to reverse.
Microsoft warns users eligible to upgrade that they should do so now, waiting is an unnecessary security risk. “New Windows 11 PCs have seen a reported 62% drop in security incidents,” it says, “and a 3x reported reduction in firmware attacks.”
Microsoft tells waivering users that “Windows 11 is secure by design and by default, with layers of defense enabled on day one to enhance your protection without the need to first configure settings.” It is, the company says, “the most secure operating system we’ve ever built, and offers advanced security like TPM 2.0.”
That’s the same hardware that separates PCs that can and can’t upgrade to Windows 11. “Security is at the heart of Windows 11,” after all, and so reducing pressure on users to upgrade by offering them a Windows 10 extension seems a backward step.
Conversely, allowing those with older, ineligible PCs to maintain Windows 10 security updates makes sense, and it should allay the feared PC landfill catastrophe feared by some. Although, this temporary solution is still being criticized as a part measure.
Of the 700 million Windows 10 users, it’s thought more than 400 million can upgrade, with at least 240 million PCs missing that security hardware hurdle. Those 400 million users should not be tempted into staying put and should upgrade now.
Notably, some reports suggested Microsoft may have actually lost 400 million Windows users in the last few years, which would make all this math wrong. But it turns out that was just an error in a company post that did say 1 billion instead of 1.4 billion users, but which now says “Windows powers over 1.4 billion monthly active devices.”
Whether it’s October 2025 or October 2026, I suspect Microsoft will be delighted to consign its Windows 10 to Windows 11 upgrade program to the company history books. This has been a roller coaster and it is now resulting in inevitable compromises. The sooner the user base hunkers down on the latest version of the OS the better.
