The Northern Lights could make an appearance on Dec. 30 and early on New Year’s Eve across as many as 17 northern and Midwest U.S. states and northern Europe after space weather forecasters predicted a strong G3 geomagnetic storm.
A potential display of the aurora borealis looks possible overnight on Monday, Dec. 30, through Tuesday, Dec. 31. There’s also a chance that New Year’s Day could also see a significant geomagnetic storm.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: X-Class Solar Flares
The possibility of displays of the aurora borealis at more southerly latitudes than is typical comes after a spike in solar activity. According to NASA, the sun emitted three strong solar flares — powerful bursts of radiation from the sun — on Dec. 29, with X1.1, X1.5, and X1.1-class events detected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s new GOES-16 satellite.
In the wake of the solar flares, two coronal mass ejections — clouds of charged particles from the sun — were hurled into the solar system toward Earth. Although NOAA says neither will be a direct hit, both will impact Earth’s atmosphere early on Dec. 31.
“A G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for Dec. 31, with a G1 (Minor) watch for Jan. 1,” said NOAA. “These are in anticipation of a pair of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME). The G1 Watch for Jan. 1 is being considered for upgrade to a G2 Watch.”
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: When And Where
NOAA forecasts that a G3 geomagnetic storm will make aurora visible early on Dec. 31, with the most intense activity likely between around 09-12 UTC, which is 4-7 a.m. EST, 3-6 a.m. CST, 2-5 a.m. MST and 1-4 a.m. PST.
According to NOAA, G3 storms can be seen from as low as Illinois and Oregon and could be as intense at Kp 7, which means “bright and active” aurora. “The aurora may become visible over many of the northern U.S. states and some of the lower Midwest to Oregon,” said NOAA’s forecast.
According to NOAA’s viewline for the aurora for Dec. 30 and Dec. 31, the aurora could be visible in the northern sky from these U.S. states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Latest Updates
Knowing when a geomagnetic storm will begin — and how intense it will be — is all about knowing when a coronal mass ejection (a cloud of charged particles that left the sun two or three days ago) reaches Earth and begins interacting with the atmosphere. That’’s not easy, but there is a warning system.
Although there is always uncertainty about a prediction of displays of the aurora, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center knows the characteristics of a CME when its particles strike the sensors of the DSCOVR and ACE satellites, which orbit Earth about a million miles out. They measure a CME’s speed and magnetic intensity, which is critical in calculating how the solar wind is about to change.
Depending on the speed of the CME, the satellites give about 15-30 minutes warning of a major space weather event — and the resulting displays of aurora. That’s why aurora hunters need to keep an eye on NOAA’s 30-minute forecast, where the latest updates are posted.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: How To See Them
Get to a location low on light pollution if you can, such as a Dark Sky Park or anywhere away from a major urban area. It’s most important to have a northern horizon that’s free from artificial light. If you can’t escape an urban area, ensure there are no bright lights in your field of view, particularly to the north, where displays are most likely.
Auroras are often much more vivid in photos than they are in person. Ibn fact, many aurora displays, especially when viewed from cities with significant light pollution, are best thought of as “photographic aurora” because they look their best on a smartphone screen. Activate “night mode” (or similar) to transform the gray streaks visible in the sky to your eyes into vibrant green or red hues.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Causes
The solar wind consists of a stream of charged particles emitted by the sun that engage with Earth’s magnetic field. These particles gain energy from coronal mass ejections, which take a few days to reach Earth. Auroras are commonly observed in polar regions, specifically around latitudes of 70 degrees north and south.
However, during significant geomagnetic events — typically when CMEs arrive in quick succession — the auroral oval can expand, allowing displays to be seen as far south as 25 degrees north and south of the equator.
Solar activity is has been at a 23-year high through 2024, a situation that appears to to be extending into 2025. In October, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel announced that the sun had reached its “solar maximum” phase, the peak of its 11-year solar cycle.
That could mean displays of Northern Lights at more southerly latitudes than is typical for at least the next year.
Follow my page for the latest Northern Lights forecasts through 2025.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
