Energy markets are in focus after the U.S. bombed key nuclear sites in Iran, which is a top oil-producing country and in a position to threaten a critical transit point for global exports.
The attack draws the U.S. into offensive operations directly against Iran and escalates a conflict that began a week and a half ago, when Israel launched its own campaign of expansive airstrikes.
But while global markets are expected to see an initial jolt, there are other mitigating factors that could soften the blow.
“Expect oil to open with a sharp 7–10% gap up as risk premiums surge. But don’t be fooled, this may not last,” energy analytics firm Kpler posted on X.
Based on the closing price of Brent crude on Friday, a 10% jump would send the global oil benchmark to nearly $85 per barrel.
Iran’s ability to retaliate is constrained, Kpler noted, saying a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on energy infrastructure belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council—comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—remain highly unlikely.
Still, the geopolitical shock from America’s unprecedented attacks on Iran should result in more crude supplies reaching the market and easing any price spikes.
Kpler said an early OPEC+ output boost for August of 411,000 barrels per day or more is increasingly likely. That would add to a series of similar production hikes in recent months.
The Strait of Hormuz is top of mind for markets as it’s a critical choke point in the global energy trade. The equivalent of 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day, flows through the narrow waterway.
On Sunday, Iran’s parliament approved the closure of the strait, though security officials have yet to sign off on it.
Such a closure might entail use of mines, patrol boats, aircraft, cruise missiles, and diesel submarines, while clearing the strait could take weeks or months.
In a note last week, George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst-case scenario of a complete disruption to Iranian oil supplies and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $120 per barrel.
But closing the strait would also choke off Iran’s own oil exports, more than 90% of which go to China, and devastate the Iranian economy.
As a result, closure of the strait is among a range of Iran’s retaliatory options that would put the survival of its regime at risk, meaning Tehran’s response could come elsewhere.
“Freight disruptions will be the story to watch,” Kpler said. “The Mideast Gulf and Red Sea face heightened threat from Houthi attacks, and middle distillates, jet in particular, poised to benefit even more in the West of Suez.”
