One Month into the Trump Presidency

The good, bad and puzzling

Corporate leaders and investors expected a bit of volatility to accompany President Trump’s second term. In many ways, that’s exactly what has happened one month in, with the radical cutting of the federal government, threats of trade wars and more.

But amid a flurry of unexpected announcements — talks over a possible Ukraine peace plan that exclude Kyiv, the retention of tough Biden-era deal guidelines and a potential Elon Musk-enabled stimulus plan, for starters — and a lack of clarity over where Trump stands on a host of issues, many executives are asking themselves: How do we navigate this?

Trump has made good on some of his campaign promises. He has vowed to impose tariffs to bolster American manufacturing. He has waged war on diversity, equity and inclusion programs, and more and more companies have fallen into line.

And most notably, he has unleashed subordinates and Musk to raze huge portions of the Washington bureaucracy, with some courts refusing to stand in the way. The latest on that: The I.R.S. fired 6,700 workers on the eve of tax-filing season; Trump claimed the power to dismiss administrative law judges at will; and he reportedly plans to take control of the U.S. Postal Service, according to The Washington Post.

But there’s a lot that business leaders and others are trying to figure out:

Where does Trump actually stand on tariffs? He has spoken of a potential wide-ranging trade deal with China, even as he threatens Europe with huge levies.
Trump’s position on Ukraine is increasingly unclear, as he publicly embraces Russia and castigates Kyiv and Europe. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is said to have pressured President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to hand over billions’ worth of Ukrainian mineral resources, according to The Wall Street Journal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately told European leaders that Washington wasn’t looking to disrupt the diplomatic status quo.
The administration’s antitrust cops have kept in place Biden era merger rules, dampening hopes for a deal resurgence. And despite efforts by tech companies like Meta to forge closer ties to Trump, the Federal Trade Commission’s new chief is weighing a scrutiny of Big Tech over censorship concerns.
Trump’s efforts to gain more control over independent agencies may reach further into the Fed, with Musk vaguely promising an audit of the central bank.
The president’s floating of potentially inflationary taxpayer payouts, funded by Musk’s government cost-cutting (whose true extent appears to change frequently), is drawing lukewarm support from congressional Republicans.
Trump’s legislative agenda is in limbo, with the president splitting Republican lawmakers over matters like the budget.

For now, corporate America appears to be along for the ride. A new survey by the Conference Board found that C.E.O. confidence recently reached a three-year peak, reflecting “confident optimism.”

Whether that will persist — Americans appear increasingly worried about rising inflation and the Musk cost-cutting — remains to be seen. Stay tuned.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Mayor Eric Adams of New York City wins a partial reprieve. Gov. Kathy Hochul said that she would not act to remove him from office for now, but would seek to limit his powers after accusations that he cut a deal with the Trump administration that led to the Justice Department dropping corruption charges against him. In other political news: Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Republican leader, said he would not seek re-election next year.

A Japanese group is reportedly courting Tesla to invest in Nissan. The contingent is led by the former Tesla board member Hiro Mizuno, who sees Elon Musk’s company as a potential partner to help the struggling Japanese automaker after its merger talks with Honda collapsed, The Financial Times reports. Tesla is thought to covet Nissan’s auto plants in the United States.

Senator Elizabeth Warren urges the Justice Department to investigate the Disney-Fubo deal. The Massachusetts Democrat argues that Disney’s bid for a controlling stake in the streaming service “raises significant” antitrust concerns that could harm consumers, Variety reports. In other media deals: ESPN has ended its long-running media rights partnership with Major League Baseball.

Deal makers in Miami warm to Trump and the Saudis

The FII Priority conference this week has so far accomplished plenty for its Saudi hosts and for business leaders eager to see and hear President Trump up close.

But Trump’s speech — and his first month in office — has also raised big questions.

The good: As a salesman, Trump impressed deal makers with his oratory abilities — using his speech to rattle off the savings he said he found through Elon Musk’s cost-cutting efforts. And many noted that his arrival at the conference was a clear signal that he wants to do deals. The crowd was, as one executive in attendance said, “entranced.”

The not so good: Some executives acknowledged that the volatility had made it harder to do deals than expected. (Others said it was still too early to judge.) One questioned why Trump focused so much of his speech on inviting foreign investment into the United States but seemingly took for granted that “the Americans would invest in the U.S.” And another said there was real concern that “drill baby drill” could be the wrong approach — a notable aside at a conference hosted by the Saudis.

Who showed up?

Safra Catz, Oracle’s C.E.O., made her first appearance at the conference.
The venture capitalist Ben Horowitz was onstage, proclaiming his firm never rolled out diversity, equity and inclusion programs.
Ken Griffin of Citadel, a Miami mainstay, spoke too.
Serena Williams and Lance Armstrong were in tow, representing the athlete turned investor set, as was Portia Archer of the W.T.A. It was the first time that the women’s professional tennis league had joined the event, less than a year after it announced its partnership with the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

One interesting spotting near the pool at the conference’s Faena Hotel: Jeff Zucker, the former president of CNN, and his old employee David Zaslav chatting with each other, an interaction sure to spark speculation given the evolution of their friendship. (DealBook was told they simply ran into each other.)

Who didn’t show — at first: The Saudi wealth fund’s governor, Yasir al-Rumayyan, was supposed to deliver opening remarks Wednesday but had to jet to Washington. He was at the White House trying to make progress on the long awaited deal between LIV and the PGA Tour.

Al-Rumayyan made it back in time to host a huge dinner at Queen Miami Beach, a thumping, nightclub-style Japanese restaurant. As he walked into dinner, he told DealBook the meeting with Trump was “good.”

Inside, sushi, steak and avocado caviar slices were in abundance. On the giant screens overhead were rotating images of some of executives and the Saudi investment fund’s big allies: Ray Dalio, Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone, and Jared Kushner.

The Saudi presence in Florida will soon be year-round, as the kingdom chose Miami to be its second U.S. investment hub.

On Friday’s agenda: Al-Rumayyan will be in conversation with Eric Schmidt; the financier and New York Mets owner Steve Cohen will speak about the future of sports; and Uber’s Dara Khosrowshahi will discuss the future of autonomous transportation.

James Bond lives … at Amazon

Jeff Bezos and Amazon finally got the rights to make all of the James Bond films they want.

The terms weren’t disclosed, but given the bitter three-year dispute between Amazon and the Broccoli family, which controlled the Bond intellectual property, it’s no doubt a big number, DealBook’s Edmund Lee explains.

The move shows that Amazon is serious about turning its Prime streaming venture into a bona fide Hollywood business — and not just a way to sell more stuff. Bezos, an avowed TV and film fanatic, said in 2016: “When we win a Golden Globe, it helps us sell more shoes in a very direct way.”

Recap: Amazon spent $8.5 billion to buy MGM Studios in 2022. The deal was seen as a high-priced bet on a single property: James Bond, which has taken in more than $6 billion at the domestic box office after adjusting for inflation. By then, MGM had sold much of its film library and its vast studio lot, so the retail giant was effectively paying for the right to distribute Bond films.

But there was a problem. The Broccoli family reportedly hated Amazon’s ideas on how to develop the next film, and the picture never really got off the ground. (Remember: Amazon had distribution rights, not creative control.)

It has been more than three years since the last film, “No Time to Die,” hit theaters, and the $8.5 billion was starting to look like an overreach. Barbara Broccoli, the formidable producer who controlled the franchise, called Amazon execs “idiots,” according to a juicy Wall Street Journal report from December.

Now what? After the lengthy wait, fans are likely to finally see a new Bond film. Also, expect spinoffs. Imagine a young M climbing up the ranks of MI6. And what about all those other agents? Where’s 005? 009? There are a lot of three-digit spy characters.

It’s part of the streaming playbook. Buy I.P., then pump out as many films and shows as possible to keep subscribers glued to the service. Paramount+ has done this with “Star Trek,” and Disney+ has so many “Star Wars” spinoffs it’s hard to keep count. Amazon Prime made a “Lord of the Rings” prequel, paying more than $700 million for the first season alone. Critical reactions have been mixed.

As for who will play the next Bond, Bezos is already soliciting ideas. DealBook wants an aging Bond, someone at the end of his career reassessing all of his missions — think Idris Elba or Gary Oldman.

THE SPEED READ

Deals

The meme-stock investor Ryan Cohen has grown his stake in Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, to roughly $1 billion. (WSJ)
Shares in Celsius Holdings soared in premarket trading after the energy drinks maker said it would buy a rival, Alani Nu, for $1.8 billion in cash and stock. (Bloomberg)

Politics, policy and regulation

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