Politics could also prove problematic.
Most of the movies that Hollywood is poised to celebrate represent a cultural paradigm that was shattered by the presidential election. “Emilia Pérez,” a musical exploration of trans identity, has 13 nominations, the most of any film. In one way or another, “The Brutalist” (10 nods), “Wicked” (10), “Conclave” (eight), “I’m Still Here” (three), “Sing Sing” (three) and “Nickel Boys” (two) also serve as blow horns for progressive politics.
The messages — celebrate diversity and inclusion, treat immigrants with kindness, stand up against authoritarianism and racism — will resonate with millions of viewers. As will the related cris de coeur that some winners will inevitably make in their acceptance speeches. At the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards, Jane Fonda blasted the MAGA movement while accepting a lifetime achievement honor. “Woke just means you give a damn about other people,” she said, urging other stars to join her in speaking out.
But large portions of the country could reach for the remote, if they tune in at all.
“To succeed, the Oscars need to speak to the whole country,” said Miranda Banks, chair of Loyola Marymount University’s department of film, television and media studies. “Instead of an inside conversation — preaching to the choir — it needs to be an everyone conversation. Unfortunately, the academy often has a difficult time with this, which is why it’s losing certain audiences.”
Mr. O’Brien, the host, said he planned to touch on politics and move on.
“I think as host, I cannot ignore the moment we’re in,” Mr. O’Brien said at a virtual news conference on Wednesday. “But I’ll also make sure that the night doesn’t drift into being only about that.” He added that he planned to “infuse the show with positivity” and celebrate the ways in which filmmaking requires community and collaboration.
“It’s a difficult line to walk, but I’m determined to figure it out,” he said.
In the 1990s and shortly afterward, when populist movies like “Forrest Gump” and “Gladiator” won top prizes, the Oscars telecast routinely delivered about 45 million total viewers. In 1998, the high point, 57.2 million people watched “Titanic” win the trophy for best picture.
