Good morning. Phil Wahba writing from New York this morning. As consumer and retail CEOs see the holiday season inching closer, they’re trying to figure out whether U.S. customers will keep up their healthy pace of shopping—even in the face of all political and economic tumult—or finally pull back. There’s one thing chief executives agree on: the U.S. consumer is anxious and their spending can’t be taken for granted.
“What we’ve seen in this economy is a customer across all cohorts of income levels being somewhat distressed, especially in sustained inflation,” Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos told a Goldman Sachs retail conference last week.
And yet the U.S. consumer continues to spend—for now, and likely through the end of the year. Consulting firm AlixPartners’ 2026 holiday forecast predicts holiday season sales will rise 4% to 7% even as 57% of Americans say they are worse off than a year ago, and many say they should spend less this year. That contradiction comes down to a combination of relatively low unemployment, negative headlines, and retailers doling out deals: shoppers know they should tighten their budgets given current events, but they still have money to spend and are instead focusing on squeezing more out of each dollar.
Vasos sees that trend in the habits of Dollar General shoppers. He says households making $100,000 or more are trading down to Dollar General from competitors like Walmart. Meanwhile, customers making $45,000 a year or less—those particularly exposed to high gas prices—are making more store visits but buying less on each one, stocking up on what they need when they have the cash for it.
Macy’s CEO Tony Spring said he’s contending with wary consumers by moving forward with the department store’s plan to invest more in stores, place more employees on the floor, fine-tune its merchandise assortment, and improve its supply chain. Those upgrades have increased Macy’s operational flexibility; its nimbler supply chain, for instance, makes it easier to cycle out items that aren’t selling. Dollar General has responded to the uptick in bargain hunters by ramping up its selection of $1 items.
“There is no straight line unless you can tell me there won’t be an inflation increase,” said Spring. “There’s way too much uncertainty, so we are focused on serving the customers.”
Indeed, the CEOs at the Goldman conference seemed resigned to operating in an environment where agility is required, but that doesn’t mean they’re not yearning for some stability.
The biggest question weighing on CEOs’ minds is how to manage “everything going on, with diesel prices, oil, a war, interest rates, the Fed,” said Boot Barn CEO John Hazen. “Pick your topic.”
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at [email protected]
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CEO Daily is curated and edited by Joseph Abrams, Jason Ma, Claire Zillman, and Lee Clifford.
