The headlines have not been good for Saudi Arabia since the Iran war started: GDP has contracted, Iran-backed forces have attacked its oil infrastructure, and the kingdom saw its top rival close the Strait of Hormuz.
On top of that, President Donald Trump reportedly turned down Saudi requests to help fight Houthis threatening Red Sea oil exports, despite the defense pact between the two allies, forcing Riyadh to contemplate a future with less U.S. intervention in a more dangerous environment.
But Saudi Arabia actually stands to generate more oil revenue now than it did before the war started in February, according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
That’s because the higher price of crude has more than offset the decline in export volume. Saudi Arabia shipped about 7 million barrels of oil per day before the war, less than 4 million in March and April, then 5.5 million this month, he calculated in a Substack post on Saturday.
At the same time, Brent crude futures have soared roughly 75% this year and are trading at about $107 per barrel. As a result, Saudi Arabia’s annualized export revenues are now at $210 billion, up from $150 billion before the war, Brooks estimated, adding the windfall is more than 6% of GDP.
“The Saudi Kingdom is perhaps the only winner in this war,” he wrote.
The U.S. military’s protection of tankers has helped restore much of the oil exports coming through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Saudi Arabia to pivot back toward the Persian Gulf after attacks on its East-West Pipeline halted exports via the Red Sea.
But that outlet is back online. Bloomberg reported on Monday Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports from the pipeline, with flows reaching about 3.5 million barrels a day.
While that’s less than its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, it comes just a few weeks after Iran-backed militias in Iraq damaged the pipeline, forcing Saudi Arabia to temporarily shut it down.
“Folks, at this point in time, any exports Saudi achieves via the Red Sea is just icing on their $100/barrel cake,” Tanker Trackers pointed out on Sunday. “The Iranian proxies in Yemen and Iraq did Saudi a favor by forcing them to ship out crude via the east coast where the U.S. was already ramping up convoy protection.”
To be sure, the kingdom’s oil sector remains vulnerable to future attacks from Iran or its allies in the region. The Houthis have also solidified their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait oil chokepoint in the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran remain in limbo amid little sign of any progress, with some on Wall Street predicting the war could drag on deep into 2027.
But despite the risks Saudi Arabia still faces, Iran’s situation appears to be catastrophic. The U.S. naval blockade is crushing its economy and preventing any of its oil from being exported.
Brooks added that whenever the war eventually ends, a massively weakened Iran will be dependent on foreign aid for years to come as it rebuilds the shattered economy.
By contrast, Saudi Arabia is poised to export oil from its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, now that the East-Wast Pipeline is back, as well as from its Persian Gulf ports.
“If increased exports from the east coast are sustained as loadings from Yanbu recover, total Saudi exports could feasibly rise beyond levels seen before the pipeline attacks,” Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a note earlier this month.
