Monday’s U.S. stock market close marked fresh highs for multiple indices, a sharp departure from previous months as one of the most chaotic quarters for equities in recent memory came to an end.
The second quarter began on an historically tumultuous note, with President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs sending stocks into free fall and the bond market into turmoil, and putting the U.S.’s global economic dominance at risk. Since then, though, the market has steadily climbed and climbed, as investors shake off concerns about the policies and focus on the news they want to see, like potential tax cuts.
In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit all-time highs Friday after Trump said that the U.S. signed a trade deal with China. The momentum continued Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching new all-time highs and increasing 0.52% and 0.47%, respectively, from Friday’s session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 0.63% (though not in record territory).
“As markets reach new all-time highs—even with economic surprises at an 11-month low and geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties lingering—equity investors appear to have entered another ‘bad news is good news’ phase, with the focus shifting to potential rate cuts, tax incentives, and deregulation,” says Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
The upward swing comes as inflation stabilizes and earnings trend higher. That said, some analysts and economists point to other potential cracks.
“Arguably, the S&P 500 just returning to its previous record is not enough,” writes Hubert de Barochez, senior markets economist at Capital Economics. He notes that while larger company stocks look good, the Russell 2000, an index of U.S. small caps, is still below its record high, and the index of so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks, including stalwarts like Amazon, Apple, and Tesla, has also not surpassed its previous high.
That said, shares of Meta—one of the Mag Seven stocks—hit a record high late Monday, after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a restructuring of the company’s artificial intelligence group.
More volatility is possible. Next week, the president’s 90-day tariff pause is set to expire, and deals with many countries yet to be made. There is also uncertainty surrounding the Republican tax bill that would add nearly $3.3 trillion to deficits over a decade and whether it can make it through both chambers of Congress this week. And analysts say inflation related to tariff policies has yet to be seen in the official data.
“We think that the high level of uncertainty, which notably stems from Trump’s chaotic policymaking, will prevent the S&P 500 from rising as quickly as it has recently,” writes de Barochez. “The impending expiration of tariff ‘pauses’ may spark another boot of volatility in the markets.”
