It’s as if nature is reading the calendar too. Much has been made of a recent slumber in the Atlantic hurricane season. With predictions of an active season, the August lull surprised many scientists since ocean temperatures have been suitably warm. I suspect Saharan dust, drier air, and upper atmospheric conditions were the culprit for the reduced activity, but that’s a story for another day. The climatological peak in the Atlantic hurricane season is upon us and so is the next threat for the U.S. Gulf Coast.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s Sunday morning outlook, a broad area of low pressure located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has an 80% chance of development within the next two days, and a 90% chance of development within seven days. NHC meteorologists write, “A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week.” If you live anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, you should be paying attention this week.
The water temperatures are warm enough to support further development, but wind shear and dry air will likely limit strengthening. Our best models indicate tropical depression or tropical storm as the upper limit. However, some of the higher resolution models have been trending toward a slightly more robust system. If the system is named, it will be called Francine. Irrespective of its category or name, the system should be a significant rainmaker for the Gulf region and Southeast this week.
Speaking of Francine, the table below indicates that the sixth name storm of a typical Atlantic hurricane season does not happen until August 29th. Based on data from the past thirty years, the sixth hurricane is usually expected around October 15th. Are we behind the projections for a hyperactive 2024 season? Yes. Is current activity less than a typical season? No. My hunch is that we will see several storms over the next few months but likely not 20 to 25 storms as some organizations predicted.
An average hurricane season produces about fourteen named storms. Of those, seven usually become hurricanes. The graphic below indicates that we are roughly at the peak of the Atlantic season so there is plenty of time for “catching up.” Hurricanes are destructive and change lives. I am always pulling for the lower end of these projections. At the time of writing, it is worth noting that two systems further east in the Atlantic Ocean are currently being monitored for development by the National Hurricane Center.
