In France, with the long holiday season slowly coming to a close, the candidates for the role of prime minister are emerging. Many of them are highly experienced, which is reassuring, and it is not impossible that the President chooses someone from ‘the left field’. The process will intensify this week ahead of a meeting on Friday (23) at the Elysée between the President and the representatives of the main parties. The sense is that Macron prefers to have a prime minister in place before the very end of August.
At the moment the main ‘runners’ for prime minister are –
Lucie Castets –the budget officer for the Mayor/City of Paris where she does not have a stellar fiscal record, and the candidate of the far left LFI (La France Insoumise). Beyond the LFI and other parts of the Nouveau Front Populaire, there is very little support for this relatively inexperienced candidate and we would not expect her to succeed.(she is however expected to visit the Elysée on Friday 23rd with the group of party leaders).
Bernard Caseneuve – formerly prime minister (2016-17) in the government of Francois Hollande, he is considered competent, popular across the political spectrum and has the Socialists support as well as that of many Macronists. He has held a number of other ministerial roles – Interior, Budget, Europe and is a lawyer by training. In our view he is the best prospect that the centre left has for the role of prime minister.
Xavier Bertrand – steady, competent and somewhat uncharismatic prominent Republican with a lifetime of experience in politics being pushed by the centre-right. His candidacy depends on a full rupture on the left, that would leave the right in French politics in a more decisive position. Most likely the Republican with the best chance.
Other names are circulating, like that of Valerie Pecresse, the leader of the regional around Paris and a very prominent Republican are being circulated, but she would likely be too divisive.
Overall, the good news is that a number of the French PM candidates that are spoken of publicly, are serious and experienced, and would be well able to lead a coalition government.
For that to happen, the cause of the far-left must be damaged and here they may be the authors of their own misfortune, as they are currently circulating a proposal to have Macron impeached. This proposal might fuel a disagreement with the Socialists, which could then rupture the NFP, and set in train the government formation in earnest.
It is also worth noting that Macron might opt to leave some heavyweight ministers in place – and there will be a lot of attention on whether Bruno Le Maire has appetite to stay in his tole given the difficult budget process that will follow the formation of a government.
The ultimate composition of the cabinet and of important roles like the Minister for the Interior will depend very much on the coalitions that are being broken and formed between the parties. From Macron’s point of view, the ideal would be a coalition that brings the two older parties – Socialists and Republicans, into a government with his own party, and that would garner a majority in parliament of close to 350 seats.
