The competition to win in self-driving saw setbacks in 2024, but things were still going strong at CES. CES is not longer really a consumer electronics show—even the classic large consumer electronics vendors like Samsung, LG, Sony and more made their booths mostly about the AI they want to serve (not physically sell) you. It’s become a transportation show and the new West Hall and some of the North hall were devoted to that.
U.S. Automakers were largely absent this time, though a few new Chinese ones made appearances. The most important company in self-driving, Waymo, showed off two versions of their 6th generation hardware, one on the promised Zeekr minivan platform and another on the non-Chinese Ioniq 5 platform meant to replace it due to the 100% tariff put on Chinese import vehicles. Waymo continues to develop for the Zeekr, and some analysis of the law states they will be exempt from the tariffs until they Ioniq is ready. The Zeekr is a taller, more spacious minivan, which may be preferred by customers over a crossover-SUV.
Zeekr had their own booth, and showed off a version of the vehicle with the front seats reversed to offer face-to-face seating, with the steering wheel blocked. Waymo might offer this configuration in future, it is speculated. Indeed, Waymo can still use the Zeekr after the tariffs in many other countries of the world outside the USA if they allow Chinese made vehicles.
Chinese made vehicles have strong advantages for robotaxis, due to low cost, speed of manufacture, an no need for well known nameplates or even high mechanical reliability.
On the other hand, Korean makers like Hyundai also can made good value vehicles and are well known around the world. The Ioniq should also be popular and produce a good taxi ride at a reasonable price.
Lidars and Imaging Radars
CES has always featured a ton of LIDAR companies, and this year they were back in force, in spite of the diminishing number of self-driving teams to sell to. Indeed, most of them now see initial sales volume coming from regular automakers hoping to make higher quality driver-assist tools and ADAS pilot tools which drive with human supervision, or perhaps so called “level” 3 cars which drive on highways while a human is able to ignore the road, but must take over before going to city streets or certain complex situations. The volume of robotaxis being made today is much smaller than the LIDAR companies hoped it would be at this point.
Even so there’s a large set of offerings, with Chinese vendors Hesai and Robosense leading in volume. There were long range FMCW 1550nm LIDARs, and lower cost, shorter range units galore. One interesting pitch came from Israeli companies who hope that they might gain a special edge simply be being neither Chinese nor American. The US may resist Chinese LIDAR and China may resist LIDAR from the USA, leaving other countries the only ones able to supply for use globally. Or so they hope.
One company not talking LIDAR was one of the world’s biggest automotive suppliers: Bosch. Previously, Bosch had promised they would release a LIDAR that would outperform all others in the market, and presumably sell well considering the strong position of Bosch in the industry. They have dropped this product, according to a spokesperson.
There was even more growth in the area of imaging radar. Traditional automotive radars are very low resolution. So low that they’re not useful for detecting static objects like debris on the road or stalled cars. The whole world is static objects. Radar is great at seeing moving objects because it detects speed. Imaging radars get enough resolution—some claiming below 0.5 degrees—that they can perhaps even replace the LIDAR. That’s good because they can have lower cost, and also because they are immune to fog and other weather. Most teams, though, are not yet seeking to save money by replacing a sensor. They want the very best, even at higher cost, and will work to be cheap later. Some imaging radar suppliers have special hardware, some only provide software. Like almost every booth at CES, the buzzword was AI—in this case the use of AI pattern matching techniques to better classify radar targets and even improve resolution on figuring out their location.
May
With Cruise, Argo and Apple gone, and Motional under doubt, the US robotaxi space is now limited to mainly Waymo and Zoox. Zoox was present on the show floor, and giving rides to press, but their planned public launch in Las Vegas for 2024 was delayed. The press rides suggest it should happen in 2025, though, and not just “staying in Vegas” since San Francisco is also planned.
The other player present was May Mobility, which is operating vehicles with no safety driver in limited environments in Ann Arbor, Michigan. May has put focus on shuttles, with more constrained routes with limited stops. That makes the problem easier for a smaller company like May, but means they are not quite ready for robotaxi. May is doing operations with safety drivers in some other cities like Miami, Martinez, Grand Rapids, Arlington, Sun City AZ and Detroit.
Also present was MobilEye (who I will cover later) and Helm.AI which announced a partnership with Honda (and thus Nissan.) Helm.AI doesn’t have a working self-driving stack at present, but they will be hard at work to help Honda make “level” 3 cars.
The Strange
One Chinese company had a prototype on offer with a big truck with a special payload bay containing a single-person multirotor aircraft with a short range. Owners of this vehicle, costing around $340,000 if and when it ships, will be able to drive to remote locations, and have fun flying around. Mostly for fun and sightseeing, though if you had a hilltop house it could make sense as a quick way for one person to travel to it quickly. The Pivotal (formerly Opener Blackfly) was also on display, and it’s real—they had actual customers on hand talking about flying experiences. Though they won’t say how many they have shipped, but it’s not a lot.
This motorhome was still full of rough edges, but it was all electric and included the most spacious slide-out living room I’ve seen in an RV. They had specs, but at this point it’s not clear how meaningful they are, as it’s years away. The Pebble electric trailer, which I’ve covered previously, was also there, a bit further along, as well as another competing electric trailer, in which the entire top of the trailer lowers down (like a pop-up trailer on steroids) to make it half-height while being towed. The big issue with towing in EVs is that it cuts range in half or more, and that’s a real barrier. Reducing the cross section of the trailer is the most effective way to reduce the drag and increase the range. The Lightship trailer is still not ready for production, though they forecast it to start manufacturing in 2025, at a cost similar to the Pebble.
There was, of course, much more—you can’t possibly tour all of CES during its 4 days, though the traffic was still down a fair bit from the Covid days. Exhibit hall space, on the other hand, was starting to match the former era, so the show is bouncing back. By far the biggest theme was a claim that products are now AI enabled. Most of the claims were hype, unfortunately, but this won’t end any time soon.
