The latest Northern Lights forecast suggests that those with clear skies in northern-tier U.S. states could see a modest display on Monday, Nov.4 and Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.
A G1 geomagnetic storm is also being predicted for Thursday, with the same U.S. states in position to glimpse the aurora.
The sun is now firmly in its “solar maximum” period, according to NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which makes it more likely that displays of aurora borealis will be observed at more southerly latitudes into 2025.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Where Will Aurora be Visible?
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts that in clear skies on Monday and Tuesday, aurora may be seen from Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine.
Here’s the latest “auroa viewline” from NOAA, which represents the southern-most locations from which you may see the aurora on the northern horizon. This one is for Monday, Nov. 4, but it also applies to Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: What To Expect
The potential displays of aurora borealis tonight have a predicted Kp index of 4, which provides a rough guide to their intensity. According to NOAA, that means: “The aurora will move further from the poles, it will become brighter, and there will be more auroral activity (motion and formations). If you are in the right place, these aurora can be quite pleasing to look at.”
Aurora hunters should to keep an eye on NOAA’s 30-minute forecast, where the latest updates are posted.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Latest Updates
Knowing when a geomagnetic storm will begin — and how intense it will be — is all about knowing when a coronal mass ejection (a cloud of charged particles that left the sun two or three days ago) reaches Earth and begins interacting with the atmosphere. That’s not easy, but there is a warning system.
There is always uncertainty about a prediction of displays of the aurora; experts only know the characteristics of a CME when its particles strike the sensors of the DSCOVR and ACE satellites, which orbit Earth about a million miles out. They measure a CME’s speed and magnetic intensity, which is critical in calculating how the solar wind is about to change.
Depending on the speed of the CME, the satellites give about 15-30 minutes warning of a major space weather event — and the resulting displays of aurora.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: How To See Them
To see an impactful display of aurora, it’s best to be somewhere dark away from urban light pollution. It’s most important to have a northern horizon that’s free from artificial light. If you can’t escape an urban area, ensure there are no bright lights in your field of view, particularly to the north, where displays are most likely.
Many displays of aurora, particularly from cities where light pollution dampens their brightness, are, in practice, “photographic aurora,” which show up much better in a photo than in reality. So keep your smartphone handy — and engage “night mode” or similar — which will give the grey streaks you see in the sky a greenish or reddish color.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: What Causes The Aurora
The solar wind is a stream of charged particles from the sun interacting with Earth’s magnetic field. They’re super-charged by a coronal mass ejection that travels to Earth over a few days.
Aurora is typically seen in polar regions at around latitudes of 70 degrees north and south, but during extreme geomagnetic conditions — usually when CMEs arrive at Earth one after another, or in tandem — the auroral oval can bulge, with displays then seen as low as 25 degrees north and south of the equator.
The possibility of displays of the aurora borealis at more southerly latitudes than is typical comes in the wake of a spike in solar activity, which is currently at a 23-year high.
Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Solar Flares And Coronal Mass Ejections Explained
Space weather is split into two major events on the sun’s surface that can affect Earth — solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation that typically erupt from sunspots on the sun’s surface and travel at the speed of light. If directed at Earth, they arrive in just over eight minutes and trigger a geomagnetic storm.
Coronal mass ejections, huge clouds of magnetic fields and plasma hurled into space at up to 1,900 miles (3,000 kilometers) per second usually follow in the wake of a big solar flare. When directed toward Earth, a CME can cause a geomagnetic storm once it arrives a few days later. That can change the shape of our planet’s magnetic field to create spectacular aurora displays.
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Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
