When President Trump announced his plans for a new tariff regime, he said the action was “primarily to pay down debt, which will happen in very large quantity.” But fast-forward a little under a year, and the revenues generated by customs duties aren’t enough to make a dent in interest payments on national debt—let alone the headline figure.
As of June 2026, U.S. national debt stands at $39.2 trillion, according to Treasury data. That figure is growing by eye-watering sums: For the first eight months of fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports the federal budget deficit has totaled $1.2 trillion.
In its monthly budget review published last week, the CBO also broke down the government’s incomings versus its outgoings: For the first eight months of the fiscal year (which ends in September), the government raked in $3.66 trillion but spent $4.9 trillion.
Income rose quicker than spending, the CBO reported, with revenues increasing by $174 billion, while spending crept up $57 billion.
However, income would need to rise significantly to have any impact on the value of interest payments the Treasury is paying to maintain debt levels.
The CBO reported that between October and May 2026, the government has spent $742 billion servicing the debt burden, an increase on the $674 billion spent in the same period last year. The 10% increase, the CBO explained, is “because the debt was larger than it was in the first eight months of fiscal year 2025 and because of higher long-term interest rates. Declines in short-term rates partially mitigated the overall rise in interest payments.”
Comparing these interest payments to income, the CBO reports that so far this fiscal year, tariffs have generated $189 billion, a little over a quarter of the payments required merely to service the debt.
That said, the tariff regime suffered some setbacks, which means revenues may have come in under initial expectations: In February this year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against a tranche of tariffs the White House had rolled out in 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The government was ordered to pay back some $129 billion, according to congressional documents.
The figures did demonstrate that, before the ruling, tariffs were having a meaningful impact on the bottom line. The CBO reported that customs duties in fiscal year 2026 so far had more than doubled compared with the same period in 2025, rising by $107 billion. This increase occurred through to April, the CBO said, and was a direct result of executive action.
However, net collections on tariffs declined sharply in May, when tariff refunds began to be paid. Given that the White House moved to reintroduce tariffs on new legal grounds (namely, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974) in the immediate aftermath, the significant revenues generated by the policy may appear in future data.
A new take
The president has also indicated a new perspective on national debt. Previously, the White House had talked about paying down the debt, and using tariffs or visa revenues to do so.
In a recent interview with Fortune’s editor-in-chief, Alyson Shontell, Trump also shared an alternate view: that the nation’s debt is really not so bad if you see it through the lens of a real estate mogul—the debt versus the total value of America and its natural assets, such as the Grand Canyon or surrounding oceans. “If you put down the value of these things, it’s like hundreds of trillions of dollars,” Trump says, and by that measure, “if you kept [the national debt] at $40 trillion, you’re way under-levered.”
Debt hawks are continuing to push for fiscal responsibility. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is urging lawmakers to keep deficit reduction in mind as discussions over advancing a third budget reconciliation bill in Congress progress.
The committee is calling for savings of at least $600 billion, adding: “The last two reconciliation bills are projected to add nearly $5 trillion to the debt through 2035. The upcoming budget resolution should instead facilitate the passage of legislation to reduce deficits, as reconciliation is intended to do.”
