The growing trade war and rapid policy shifts are expected to drag down economic growth in the United States and around the world, according to projections released on Monday.
The resilience that was evident last year is slipping, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest interim economic report, which estimated that global growth would dip to 3.1 percent in 2025 and to 3 percent in 2026, from 3.2 percent last year. The United States is likely to see a sharper drop, falling to 2.2 percent this year and to 1.6 percent next year, from the 2.8 percent growth in 2024.
“Some signs of weakness have emerged, driven by heightened policy uncertainty,” said Mathias Cormann, the organization’s secretary-general. “Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs both for production and consumption.”
President Trump has imposed tariffs — including a sweeping 25 percent penalty on foreign steel and aluminum — on once-close allies like Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Britain, as well as on longtime rivals like China. Most have already issued countermeasures or have threatened to. Mr. Trump has vowed to impose another round of tariffs next month.
One result of the tariffs is that inflation looks to be rising faster than previously thought, the O.E.C.D. said, explaining why it revised its previous estimate, published in December. Both business and consumer confidence have also ebbed.
The outlook for the 20 countries that use the euro is limp. This year, growth is expected to increase 1 percent; next year, it should rise to 1.2 percent. The grimmest forecast is for Mexico, where growth is expected to decline to negative 1.3 percent this year and negative 0.6 percent in 2026.
India, by contrast, is on track to record the strongest growth, according to the O.E.C.D. report, which estimates that gross domestic product, which rose last year to 6.3 percent, will increase to 6.4 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026. China’s economy, too, looks to be in better health, with 4.8 percent growth expected in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026. If trade restrictions escalate, inflation could rise and economic growth could decline even more than anticipated, the organization warned.
The one potential bright spot is artificial intelligence, said Álvaro Santos Pereira, the group’s chief economist. A.I. is expected “to significantly boost labor productivity growth over the next decade,” he said, with even greater gains if combined with advances in robotics.
