U.S. employers accelerated hiring in March, a surprising show of strength that analysts warned might be the high-water mark for the labor market as the Trump administration’s economic policies began to play out.
Employers added 228,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, a figure that was far more than expected and was up from a revised total of 117,000 in February. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent, from 4.1 percent.
The data, based on surveys of households and businesses conducted in the second week of March, do not reflect the sweeping tariff announcement that rattled markets this week, or the full extent of the job cuts resulting from President Trump’s efforts to reduce the federal work force.
The market reaction to the report was scant, as traders were preoccupied with the threat of a trade war. The S&P 500 was down nearly 5 percent at midday. The glum investor mood followed Thursday’s huge sell-off, the biggest since the height of the pandemic, over the rollout of Mr. Trump’s worldwide tariff campaign.
Still, Mr. Trump was quick to seize on the report as proof that his economic agenda was working. In a post on social media Friday morning, he wrote: “GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING.”
March’s job gains were driven by hiring in health care and social assistance, which reported a combined gain of 78,000. The leisure and hospitality sectors recovered from a dip in January and February — attributed by some observers to bad weather — and posted a gain of 43,000 jobs. Retailers added 24,000, and transportation and warehousing reported a gain of 23,000.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm KPMG, said she was “pleasantly surprised” by Friday’s report, but she added that the impending repercussions of federal job cuts and tariffs would mean “this is likely to be the high-water mark.”
The Labor Department released revised employment numbers for January and February that trimmed the gains in those months by 45,000, clouding the picture of the labor market’s momentum.
“We are still expecting weakness,” Ms. Swonk said. “We are starting to see the layoff announcements mount.”
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, said the report did not reflect a rosy outlook for the labor market. “What we are really seeing is the calm before the storm,” he said.
Deep in the March numbers, some analysts saw warning signs.
Construction added 13,000 jobs — but average growth is only 8,000 jobs per month over the first quarter, a sign of sluggish activity overall. The industry is likely to be hit hard by the administration’s tariff push, which is expected to increase supply costs, and its immigration policies, which will affect a key source of labor.
Manufacturing jobs increased by just 1,000 in March in a sector that is likely to be watched carefully for knock-on effects of supply chain disruptions, and as a focus of the Trump administration’s aims to foster industrial jobs in its gamble on tariffs.
A survey this week by the Institute for Supply Management showed a contraction in manufacturing activity in March.
“Labor demand in the services sector is substantially stronger than in the manufacturing sector,” said Michael R. Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. And, he noted, service sector workers earn higher hourly wages than manufacturing workers do.
“The president seems to want to move Americans from a growing sector into a shrinking sector,” he said. “And he seems to want to move Americans from higher-wage jobs into lower-wage jobs. Those strike me as very confusing and harmful goals.”
The federal work force declined by 4,000 in March, a slowdown from a revised drop of 11,000 in February. While the Trump administration had fired some 25,000 probationary employees, some of them have since been reinstated, at least temporarily, as the dismissals are challenged in court.
The data showed an overall increase in government jobs, up 19,000 in March, driven by growth in state and local government.
The slight uptick in the unemployment rate in March — before rounding, it rose by one one-hundredth of a percentage point — reflected increased participation in the work force.
The strong report helps to bolster the Federal Reserve’s decision at recent meetings to hold off on interest rate cuts because the economy is in a “good place.” Officials have repeatedly said that the central bank could afford to wait for more clarity about the impact of the Trump administration’s economic policies.
Officials have acknowledged that the economic outlook has become much more uncertain as the president’s tariff plans have taken shape. Even before the latest round of tariffs announced this week, officials had expected a combination of higher inflation and slower growth this year.
The surveys for the April jobs report, which will be released in early May, will be conducted next week.
Colby Smith contributed reporting.
