Inflation is expected to have stayed stubbornly high in February, an unwelcome sign for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with the prospect of a sharp slowdown in growth as a result of President Trump’s trade war.
The latest reading of the Consumer Price Index, set for release on Wednesday, is forecast to have risen 2.9 percent from a year earlier, according to estimates from economists compiled by Bloomberg. That would represent a 0.3 percent monthly gain, a deceleration from January’s surprisingly large 0.5 percent increase but high enough to keep the central bank on edge about how it handles price pressures.
The “core” measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to give a better sense of the underlying trend, is also expected to remain high. Economists predict a rise of 0.3 percent compared to the previous month, or 3.2 percent from a year earlier.
The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to provide the latest evidence that progress toward the Fed’s goal of 2 percent inflation is has almost come to a standstill. Prices for consumer staples, such as eggs and other grocery items, are rising steeply again, along with services including airfares, hotel costs and automobile insurance.
Economists worry that Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the global trade war they have provoked will not only add to prices, but also dent growth. Uncertainty about the trajectory of the president’s trade policies have amplified those fears.
Those concerns have also materialized in recent measures tracking how consumers feel about the future. According to the latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumers’ expectations about their financial situation in the year ahead “deteriorated considerably,” as they braced for inflation sticking to around 3.1 percent. The share of consumers now expecting to be in a worse situation financially a year from now rose to its highest point since November 2023. The average perceived likelihood of missing a future debt payment rose to the highest level since April 2020.
A combination of slowing growth and resurgent price pressures puts the Fed in a difficult position, given its mandate to pursue low, stable inflation as well as a healthy labor market.
As of January, Fed officials justified their ability to hold off on another round of interest rate cuts and wait for more progress on inflation because the economy was doing well. If that resilience starts to show signs of cracking before inflation is fully vanquished, the Fed may be more limited in how it responds.
When the Fed had to deal with a trade war during Mr. Trump’s first term, it lowering interest rates by a total of three-quarters of a percent in 2019 in an effort to protect the economy from weakening further.
In his most detailed comments yet about Mr. Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, acknowledged last week that the context this time was different. “We came off a very high inflation and we haven’t fully returned to 2 percent on a sustainable basis,” he said at an event on Friday.
Mr. Powell added that the Fed’s typical response to tariffs would be to “look through” any one-time increase, but stressed that officials would be watching for any shocks and how long-term inflation expectations were shifting. “As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,” he said. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”
That suggests the Fed will extend its pause on rate cuts when officials gather next week, maintaining the current range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
Traders in futures markets are betting that the Fed will be able to cut rates three times this year, each by a quarter of a point. That is more cuts than predicted just a couple of weeks ago, reflecting rising anxiety about the economic outlook.
